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The highly anticipated 80-minute speech by President Xi’s have brought in disappointment to many investors globally as no mention on reform roadmap initiatives were brought to light
The big picture for every investor harbingers on inflation. If you get inflation right, the job becomes easy to interpret on the direction for rates, bond yields and across the various asset classes.
Now that the US yield curve has inverted, what’s next? Let me elaborate; The shorter end of the curve has inverted, but we still have other observational parts of the yield curve to determine the health of the economic cycle.
The rift between RBI and the Government from October to yesterday’s surprise resignation is worrisome.
An eventful week for global financial markets driven by several macrofundamental data and strong technical plays dominated investor sentiment and positioning.
Don’t say we didn’t tell you, yesterday’s carnage on risk assets are likely to weigh on valuations in the coming days as the various narratives by policymakers on monetary policy setting and looming concerns on trade wars takes center stage.
Consumer confidence in the US remains high, but investor confidence still remain lackluster
A positive trading session overnight followed by Asian risk assets posting gains across the board this morning.
A better tone for the start of this week with most Asian risk assets alongside US futures advancing.
Once again, Asian risk assets taking their cues from the rout in the overnight trading sessions.
It seems that investors do not hesitate to shun risk with all the lingering concerns surrounding the impasse on China-US trade talks post-APEC summit last week
Mixed trading session this morning in Asia taking cues from US overnight trading session while oil prices holding above their recent low at $55.99 and 65.89 on WTI and Brent respectively.
The steep fall in oil prices have caused worries, and have been mitigated to some extent by some good economic data, particularly from China in the last few hours.
US Treasury yields higher once again at 3.20 percent post-FED’s minute release while the performance on risk assets across the broader indices posting losses albeit the strong US corporate earnings.
Global risk assets rebounded overnight, with solid earnings season (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) buoying sentiment.
Treasury yields rose to new highs of 3.21 percent on the back of a solid ADP report and a booming ISM nonmanufacturing data.
Asian risk assets mixed following a volatile U.S. session as investor sentiment weighed on concerns on the contagion effects and other spillover risks from Italy’s worries.
The trilateral agreement pact “USMCA” boosted US equities overnight with the Dow Jones leading gains together with higher oil prices (WTI up 3%).
The FOMC raised the target range for the policy rate to 2-2.25% at its September meeting.
Markets remain in a tight trading range as market participants await the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision.
The pull-out of trade talks by China has caused renewed concerns for financial markets. China, Japan and South Kore are closed for holidays.
Asian risk assets performance remained mixed while US Treasury yields are now comfortably at 3.07 percent.
Asian risk assets extended a rally as investors shrug off the saga on trade differences in the wake of the latest salvos on tariffs.
Asian risk assets mixed, while U.S futures declined after latest round of tariffs against China.
US Treasuries touches 3 percent while Asian risk assets lower across the board and weighed on the sentiment from the recent tranche of tariffs on Chinese goods by the US.
Asian markets across the board weaker once again taking the brunt and posting losses for the 10th consecutive day.
A better tone in Asia this morning with major indices posting gains on the board while India’s indices trending weaker
Asian markets on a mixed tone as investor sentiment continue to weigh the recent rhetoric’s on trade wars amid strong economic data from the US. Within emerging markets, investors await to see how central banks in Turkey and Russia will make key rate decisions on their monetary policy front to defend their weakening currencies.
Angst sentiment towards emerging markets continue to weigh on risk indices and dominated the trend across the board posting losses
Asian markets taking cues from overnight weak US session across risk assets amid continued pressure in many emerging markets and as heightened trade tensions
Asian markets mixed this morning with China again on the fore posting early losses together with India
Brexit was the focus overnight, with the EU saying they are ready to offer the UK an unprecedented relationship “such as there never has been with any other third country”.
Broader Asian markets on a better tone this morning with China being the laggard.
Asian risk assets opened on a positive note across all major markets supported by the dovish remarks by the Fed officials last week hinging towards a slow and gradual pace of policy tightening
Asian markets all marked down this morning while DM sovereign bonds faring relatively well
Majority of the Asian indices marking lower while safe-haven Treasuries are strengthening to 2.88 percent. The Turkish lira (6.46) erased some of Tuesday’s rebound, and Asian emerging-market currencies fell.
Calmer tone across risk assets during Asian trading session, led by Japanese indices leading the way amongst their peers and China posting a weaker tone post economic data release.
Turkey’s lira posted its biggest weekly loss in more than 17 years, sparking fear of global contagion as emerging-market stocks and currencies slid from South Africa to Argentina.
Asian markets opened mixed while investor sentiment boosted China markets to outperform their peers.
Asian markets once again on a strong note while China retreating amongst their peers. The S&P 500 Index closed at the highest level since its Jan. 26 peaks
Asian markets on a better tone across the board as investors shrug off the impasse on the saga on trade wars
Asian markets trading mixed with US Treasury yields a tad weaker at 2.95 percent.
A weak tone in Asia as risk assets across the board are down anywhere between 1 percent and 2.5 percent as trade worries intensify.
The Bank of Japan left its key interest rates unchanged while announcing policy tweaks, including a shift in purchases of exchange-traded funds toward assets linked to the Topix equities index and flexibility in bond operations.
Global bond markets were under stress yesterday amid talks of BOJ’s stance on monetary policy and the risk of a strong reading on the U.S. economic growth due this week.
The Bank of Japan announced its first unlimited fixed-rate bond purchase operation since February after yields jumped on reports it will discuss possible changes to its ultra-loose monetary policy next week
Asian risk assets trading mixed as investors digest PBOC’s Yuan fixing.
Risk assets opening up stronger in Asia as investors weighed the outlook for the path of gradual rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
IMF in their world economic outlook publication cited “Global growth is projected to reach 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, in line with the forecast of the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO), but the expansion is becoming less even, and risks to the outlook are mounting”.
U.S. equity-index futures edged up after the S&P 500 capped a second straight weekly gain.
Shares in Tokyo headed for their lowest level since March, while equity benchmarks in China, Hong Kong and South Korea fell at least 0.5 percent.
Equities in China and Hong Kong dropped, reversing gains within the first 30 minutes of trading.
DM Sovereign bonds well supported as investors fret over concerns on global trade.
Flight to safety bid fuelled the demand for the benchmark ten-year US Treasury bonds strengthening to 2.83 percent.
The Kingdom of Bahrain to receive support for economic reforms from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE.
Global risk sentiment remains averse pushing indices lower across the board. The S&P 500 was down 1.37 percent while Nasdaq was down 2.09 percent.
Broad risk-off moves continue to grapple across markets on reports the U.S. Treasury Department is said to be planning to heighten scrutiny of Chinese investments in sensitive industries. Most Asian currencies slipped against the dollar.
MSCI upgrades Saudi Arabia to EM status. MSCI announced its annual country classification review results yesterday, upgrading Saudi Arabia and Argentina to EM, while placing Kuwait on the review list for potential reclassification to EM (decision in June 2019).
In a White House statement Monday evening, Trump said that he had instructed the U.S. Trade Representative’s office to identify $200 billion in Chinese imports for additional tariffs of 10 percent.
The Federal Reserve is due to hike interest rates for the seventh time of the cycle as they conclude their two-day MPC.
Italian stocks fell to the lowest levels in more than a year, while Italian sovereign bonds had their worst day in two decades, after President Sergio Mattarella rejected the appointment of an anti-euro finance minister, igniting calls for his impeachment and sending Europe's third largest economy into a dangerous constitutional crisis.
Turkey’s woes take a toll on global risk assets. The Turkish lira dropped to a record low against the dollar yesterday, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to bolster his position ahead of elections next month.
Ten-year Treasury yields touched 3.09%, the highest since July 2011, and the dollar hit a fresh year-to-date high.
US equity-index futures drifted lower amid weaker Asian markets. US Treasury yields moved higher above the 3 percent mark while gold is at $1312 per troy ounce.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury, at below 3 percent, indicates a stabilization in yields.
The yield on the benchmark US government note rose back above the psychologically significant level of 3 percent yesterday following fair investor demand at auction for $25bn in new 10-year notes.
US Treasuries edged lower yesterday after the Treasury Department’s latest auction drew soft demand among investors
US Treasuries remain muted and comfortably below the 3 percent mark while U.S. stocks extended gains following a deluge of announcements on mergers and acquisitions while the dollar resumed its winning streak to reach the strongest level this year
The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in April, the lowest level in eighteen years.
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UAE increased slightly in April to reach 55.1 (54.8 in March), indicating a solid rate of expansion in the non-oil private sector last month.
The Saudi Arabian Interbank Offered Rate (SAIBOR) is now at the highest levels in nine years. The three-month SAIBOR advanced to 2.38 percent from 1.73 percent seen in May 2017.
Markets overall had a muted reaction to the decision of the Fed to raise rates by 25bps with three further hikes confirmed for 2018.
US equities recorded yet again new highs for the year, while trading in the Asian session continues to be mixed.
Equities have traded mixed in the Asian morning session, failing to follow through on the new all-time highs recorded by the major US indices.
Asian equities have been mixed in the morning session, following a flat US market.
Asian equities sold off this morning, led lower by commodity stocks as copper prices tumbled and following profit taking on the US indices.
US equities, recorded new intra-day highs spurred by the approval of the tax bill by the Senate, however did not hold on to the gains.
US equities recorded solid gains yesterday and made fresh all-time highs as further progress was made by Congress on the tax reform plans.
Market turbulence continues in China, leading Asian shares lower, alongside weaker oil and metal prices.
Investors cheered a dovish-leaning Fed, while anticipating a December hike considered warranted by the Committee.
Risk-on sentiment pervaded markets yesterday, with all major US equity indices recording all-time highs and Asian stocks headed for a record close this morning.
Political uncertainty is back to the fore in the euro area, as in Germany coalition talks to form a government collapsed last night.
Asian markets have steadied after a day of steep losses globally.
Equity indices in Europe and the US fell yesterday, followed by Asian markets this morning.
China economic release points to a slowdown in the economy.
Asian stocks close to record highs, underpinned by solid earnings on strong global growth.
President Donald Trump, on his Asian trip, called on nations to drop support for the North Korean regime.
The Positive macroeconomic newsflow continues – Global Composite PMI inches slightly higher in October.
US personal spending above expectations hurricane related.
European Central Bank (ECB), is set to reveal details of a reduction in monetary stimulus today in what could be the most eventful meeting of the central bank this year.
India's Cabinet approved INR 2.11 tr (US$32.4bn) plan on Tuesday to recapitalise its state banks over the next two years.
The dollar slipped in Asian trading after U.S. stocks and Treasury yields fell.
Upbeat earnings forecasts from IBM and better-than-expected results from Abbott Laboratories and Northern Trust helped the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, hit record highs.
The Dow Jones index briefly topped the 23,000 level for the first time, The US dollar strengthened to a one-week high yesterday on speculation the next Fed chairman will be more hawkish.
Asian markets mixed on talk of John Taylor being candidate for Fed chair position, known for policy rules suggesting under current circumstances higher interest rates.
A dovish reading of the Fed minutes boosted stocks, US Treasuries and to a minor extent gold, sending the US dollar tumbling against major peers.
Western equity markets closed mixed yesterday, while Asian stocks this morning have been boosted by the release of the IMF economic outlook, which was pretty upbeat.
Stocks little changed to mixed both yesterday and this morning in the Asian session.
Euro area retail sales were below expectations, but the strong trend is unbroken.
The global outlook for inflation is improving. Mildly rising inflation is a positive factor for corporations (hence, equities), enhancing their purchasing power and a negative one for government bonds and interest-rate sensitive assets in general.
Strong economic growth appears sustainable
Inclusion in the MSCI EM Index should be well received by investors
Global debt currently stands at just over USD 233tn
“Debt is a form of wealth” – surge in debt should translate into global growth
A Look Back on Our 2017 Strategies
Technology was the winner in equity markets. EM assets performed across all asset classes.
GCC Macro Economic Outlook
The outlook for the GCC economies at the start of 2018 is constructive.
We forecast Brent Oil Futures at an average of USD 56/b in 2018.
Expect high single digit returns in the US and low teen returns in EMs. Synchronised global growth and upwards earning revisions are supportive of equity performance. In the GCC, high yielding stocks remain in favour.
Equity Strategy – Emerging Markets
The bulging young demographic is supportive of consumption. Asia has the highest corporate profitability and economic growth globally. India and China remain the dominant economies.
The decentralisation of transaction-linked information is the underpinning of blockchain technology. It may prove to be the catalyst for change across global industries, from accounting to manufacturing.
Fixed Income Strategy
Only those companies that are continually evolving and recreating their businesses will survive the passage of time.
Diversification benefits of traditional asset classes are limited. Alternative strategies enhance a portfolios risk/return trade-off.
UK Real Estate Strategy
The search for yield and excess liquidity is driving UK commercial property investment.
Global Risks to Our 2018 Outlook
We outline the risks that may come to pass in 2018.
Emirates NBD CIO, Gary Dugan, weighs in on discussions held at the G-7 meeting. Dugan speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East."
Emirates NBD Chief Investment Officer, Gary Dugan, weighs in on Egypt's central bank monetary policy and talks about the country's foreign reserves and currency. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East."
Emirates NBD Chief Investment Officer, Gary Dugan, weighs in on President Trump's policies including the travel ban and discusses Fed policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East."
Emirates NBD Chief Investment Officer, Gary Dugan, discusses his outlook currency and emerging markets. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East."
Gary Dugan, Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD, discusses the impact of the US’s presidential election and how Trump is regarded as a major disruptor in 2017.
In the week of February 12 2017, the CIO explores the impact on Trump’s tax plans on asset classes and bond markets.
In this weekly video starting February 5 2017, we explore the impact of rising inflation on several markets around the world. We also look at inflation’s impact on equities, bonds, the quarter’s profit forecast as well as a quick look on India’s asset market post the reveal of its budget.
The CIO of Emirates NBD, Gary Dugan, reviews the main highlights of the Indian budget, presented on the 1st of February 2017.
In his weekly report starting 29 January 2017, the CIO, Gary Dugan, covers market insights on equities, bonds as well as Sterling post Trump’s 13 executive orders.
Gary Dugan, Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD, opens the new year with an honest synopsis of the economic growth and performance of the equity and bond markets.
Gary Dugan, Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD, gives us his assessment on the global economy post Trump’s election.
Gary Dugan, Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD, discusses the state of global financial markets, Fed monetary policy and oil prices with Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway and Angie Lau on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East."
“Digitalisation is one of the bank’s biggest priorities over the next few years.”
– Suvo Sarkar, Senior Executive Vice President, Head of Retail Banking & Wealth Management, Emirates NBD
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Gary Dugan, Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD, discusses the rally in markets, the weakness in emerging markets, the outlook for Fed rate hikes in 2017 and how he's advising his clients.
The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States is coming as a massive challenge to global economic order. Already his promotion of a significant fiscal boost has the bond market selling off. We consider the implications of his policies for financial markets
Prime Minister Modi’s decision to abolish the 500 and 1000 rupee bank notes is a massive reform that we believe will bring long term benefits to the Indian economy and asset markets.