We could write an entire book about last week

26 January 2026
We could write an entire book about last week

We could write an entire book about last week. It started with a spike in risk aversion as US threats of Greenland related tariffs combined with a brutal rise in Japanese government bond yields due to fiscal concerns after the announced snap elections. The WEF annual meeting in Davos was particularly significant: tensions between the US and Europe first escalated and then receded when President Trump ruled out any military action in Greenland, and renounced tariffs after he said he had agreed with NATO’s Secretary General on a “framework” for Greenland. NATO has obviously no authority on Greenland ownership, but this suggests that negotiations could explore US sovereignty over their military facilities, similarly to an embassy. Apart from that, Japan’s Minister of Finance verbally intervened to calm markets, while news from the tech sphere (Nvidia’s H200 exports to China, Netflix results, OpenAI private valuation, Alibaba’s AI chip unit’s projected IPO), were taken positively. Macro data was between benign and supportive with no red flag from the flash PMIs, and a confirmation of resilient consumer spending and improving business sentiment in the US.

In terms of weekly returns, stocks slightly rose in emerging markets and marginally fell in developed regions. The US Treasury yield curve ended close to where it started, and Japan’s 30-year yield closed at 3.64% Friday, up 15 basis points over the week but down 25 basis points from peak. Gold continued to outclass all major asset classes, up +8.5% to almost $5,000. Platinum, silver and palladium did even better. Metals and overall dollar returns were helped by a -1.8% drop of America’s currency against trade weighted counterparts – all of them within G10. This combined with geopolitical tensions to support oil prices with Brent futures gaining $1.75 to just below $66.

The working week was epic, but it continued over the weekend with all eyes on our region. The US aircraft carrier Lincoln along with three destroyer ships arrived in our vicinity, joining other assets stationed in Bahrein. With the very real possibility of strikes on Iran, several airlines cancelled Middle-East flights including to and from the UAE and KSA. On a more constructive tone, trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine were held in Abu Dhabi. There were no political breakthrough as territorial questions remain unsolved, but parameters were clarified, and progress was material on the technicals aspects to prepare the implementation if or hopefully when peace is agreed.

Believe it or not, that was not all. Back to Washington from Davos, President Trump threatened Canada with a 100% tariff against all its exports to the US in case of a trade deal with China, following the recent summit between the two countries and probably also a retaliation after PM Carney’s energetic speech in Switzerland. Staying in Washington, Democrats, revitalized by the dramatic events around immigration enforcement action in Minneapolis, are threatening to block an upcoming funding package: that is, again, the possibility of a US government shutdown from February. Finally, what didn’t happen also matters: the US Supreme Court hasn’t ruled on two impactful topics: whether most of the current tariffs decided by President Trump are legal or not, and whether he can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to an alleged mortgage fraud.

Bottom-line, the short-term is as unpredictable as ever: geopolitics could go kinetic in Iran or peace could be decided in Ukraine, threats of new tariffs are permanent but never definitive, and a Supreme Court ruling can happen anytime. And the earnings season is in full swing. The good news is that the long-term picture is getting stronger with every single event, confirming key forces: tech driven transformation, a race for critical resources, and a new global balance of economic and military power. Both our recently reshuffled strategic asset allocation and our current tactical tilts (overweight gold and emerging markets across stocks and bonds) work fine so far. But this is not a time for complacency, vigilance and selectivity are paramount. Our 2026 Global Investment Outlook, titled “Eyes Wide Open”, is ready and will be officially launched next Monday with a press conference, before we start our client roadshow on Tuesday. We can’t wait.

Markets this morning:

Asian stock markets are dispersed as we write this morning: up in onshore China, flat in Hong-Kong, slightly down in Korea, and falling -1.7% in Japan. The latter is a direct reaction to a 1% rise in the yen amid intervention risk after warnings from several authorities. The dollar is -0.5% weaker against trade-weighted counterparts. Japanese government bond yields are slightly lower, and the US curve is unchanged in Tokyo trading where the 10-year is at 4.22%. Finally, gold just crossed the $5,000 mark like a breeze, up +1.8% to $5,075. After gaining 27% in 2024 and 65% in 2025, it’s now up +17% in January alone. We recommend an overweight position for more than 2 years and reiterate that not having gold in a portfolio would be a mistake. Even from current prices, the investment case and the diversification benefits remain compelling over a multi-year horizon. Our current recommended weight in a moderate allocation is close to 8%.

Upcoming key events/data:

The week ahead combines the Fed’s January FOMC with an acceleration of the corporate earnings season. The FOMC will conclude Wednesday, probably uneventfully with interest rates on hold and some minor changes to the statement, but we won’t miss the press conference. With regards to earnings, it’s a heavy week which notably includes 4 of the “Magnificent 7”: Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on 28th, Apple on 29th. We will also look at Q4 GDP growth in Europe, inflation and retail sales in Japan, and China’s manufacturing PMI on Friday. We’ll watch political developments in Washington DC, from the risk of government shutdown to the Supreme Court and potential announcements on the Fed leadership. The US Air Force has also scheduled “readiness exercise” in our region, while trilateral talks on Ukraine could resume next Sunday in Abu Dhabi.

Have a great week.

Written by:
  • CIO Office

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