Start your banking journey with the leading bank in the region.
Find a suitable account and applyDiscover the benefits of being our customer by browsing through our banking packages.
Learn more about banking packagesLearn all about how to use your account's features and benefits to the fullest.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
All our cards offer you an exciting range of rewards and benefits.
Find a suitable card and applyGet the most out of your credit card by exploring its different benefits.
Learn all about how to use your card's features and benefits to the fullest.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
Here's how to make the most out of your loan with us.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
Our various FX products and services help you conduct your international transactions easily.
Our wide range of transfer options make it easier for you to send money locally and internationally.
Learn all about how you can seamless use our services to transfer money.
Our wealth solutions help you manage your financial future better and achieve your financial goals.
Know more about our Wealth servicesLife is uncertain but you can be prepared to face adversity with our wide range of insurance plans.
Access to over 11,000 stocks and ETFs in Global and UAE markets
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
View support centreEveryday banking is a lot easier with our digital banking platforms and services.
Discover more about banking with usWe have over 200 branches and 900 ATMs and CDMs across the UAE and overseas.
Learn more about our services and get the most out of your banking relationship with us.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
Introducing Signature, a programme of distinction reserved for the upper crust of Emirates NBD
Our wealth solutions help you manage your financial future better and achieve your financial goals.
Life is uncertain but you can be prepared to face adversity with our wide range of insurance plans.
Everyday banking is a lot easier with our digital banking platforms and services.
Learn more about our services and get the most out of your banking relationship with us.
We welcome you to a bespoke banking experience tailored to suit your private banking & wealth management needs, should you, your family, or your business have USD 5 Million (or currency equivalent) and above as Assets Under Management with us.
Start your banking journey with the leading bank in the region.
Find a suitable account and applyDiscover the benefits of being our customer by browsing through our banking packages.
Learn more about banking packagesLearn all about how to use your account's features and benefits to the fullest.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
All our cards offer you an exciting range of rewards and benefits.
Find a suitable card and applyGet the most out of your credit card by exploring its different benefits.
Learn all about how to use your card's features and benefits to the fullest.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
Here's how to make the most out of your loan with us.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
Our various FX products and services help you conduct your international transactions easily.
Our wide range of transfer options make it easier for you to send money locally and internationally.
Learn all about how you can seamless use our services to transfer money.
Our wealth solutions help you manage your financial future better and achieve your financial goals.
Know more about our Wealth servicesLife is uncertain but you can be prepared to face adversity with our wide range of insurance plans.
Access to over 11,000 stocks and ETFs in Global and UAE markets
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
View support centreEveryday banking is a lot easier with our digital banking platforms and services.
Discover more about banking with usWe have over 200 branches and 900 ATMs and CDMs across the UAE and overseas.
Learn more about our services and get the most out of your banking relationship with us.
Visit our dedicated support center for answers to all your banking-related questions.
Start your Priority Banking journey and live your success
Introducing Signature, a programme of distinction reserved for the upper crust of Emirates NBD
Our wealth solutions help you manage your financial future better and achieve your financial goals.
Life is uncertain but you can be prepared to face adversity with our wide range of insurance plans.
Everyday banking is a lot easier with our digital banking platforms and services.
Learn more about our services and get the most out of your banking relationship with us.
We welcome you to a bespoke banking experience tailored to suit your private banking & wealth management needs, should you, your family, or your business have USD 5 Million (or currency equivalent) and above as Assets Under Management with us.
Markets retreated in the Asian session following yesterday’s rally as investors look to new catalysts after a US holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific slipped, with small losses in Japan and Australia, and futures in Hong Kong are also declining. The PBOC weakened the yuan’s reference rate to the lowest since November, in a sign the grip on the currency is being loosened. Meanwhile, the Chinese banks kept their benchmark lending rates unchanged. European futures ticked lower, while contracts on the S&P 500 were slightly higher. Western markets saw a quiet session on Wednesday, with US equities and bonds not trading on the Juneteenth holiday, European stocks incurring small losses, and futures on the S&P 500 flat amidst thin volumes. Bond yields across the euro area edged higher, while the US dollar, gold and crude were little-changed. Asia saw most of the action, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3%, and Asian stocks led higher by heavyweights TSMC, Tencent, Samsung, and overall by the technology shares. Chip stocks surged in the wake of Nvidia’s unstoppable rally and Apple’s new AI features benefitting its supply chain. The MSCI EM index gained 0.7%, holding just 2% off the highs of the year.
European equities have sold off by 5% from their mid-May highs following the political turmoil in France in the wake of the far right’s success in the EU parliament elections. And French bonds have continued to sell off raising an alarm of contagion risk. Not only President Macron called a general election in a risky bet to challenge the ascendancy of the far right in France, but yesterday the EU also reprimanded France and Italy for running big deficits. Are rising political and credit risks of concern for investors holding European assets? Unlikely so. Markets could be overestimating the odds of a far-right majority government, and should it even come to that, the majority would strive to curb immigration, rather than push for an impossible Frexit. As for the rising yields, indeed the French elections are weeks aways and there is room for things to get worse. But should OAT yields become unruly, the ECB would intervene under the Transmission Protection Instrument framework. Overall, the outlook should be for interim volatility, rather than a full-blown crisis. There is hints that dollar investors may be taking the possibility of further European turmoil seriously, with the US dollar index trading close to a six-week high and pointing to a possible break-out to the upside.
UK inflation fell to the BOE’s 2% goal for the first time in almost three years, although the services CPI continued to come in hot. The expectation is anyway for the central bank to remain on track to cut rates, with a policy shift unlikely at the Thursday meeting due to the ongoing election campaign. The taming of price pressures might not help the ruling conservative party, heading for a defeat in the July 4 elections according to polls.
Brent crude rallied more than 8% in two weeks, catching most by surprise after an OPEC’s decision that, although on paper was meant to curb supply, would see a production increase in 2025. It may be that investors have doubts about the cartel members eventually executing fully on the decision, as options were maintained to delay, pause or reverse plan if required to stabilise the market. Or, more simply put, the approaching driving season in the United States should see the usual seasonal peak in demand. According to Goldman Sachs crude prices should rise “modestly” to an August peak on healthy consumer activity and transportation and cooling demand, that would be pushing the market into a deficit by 1.3m b/d over Q3. But this is by now not much of a forecast either, as Brent is already trading slightly above $85. For now, the forceful rise in crude prices seems to be suggesting something more than a modest peak ahead.
The next catalyst for the week is the Friday release of the advance business confidence surveys in the major DM countries and in India, providing important cues about the direction of the economies.
This document is prepared by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) (“the Bank” or “Emirates NBD”), a public joint stock company incorporated in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and licensed to provide various financial services including promotion, financial consultation, securities portfolio management, managing investments of investment funds, etc. Emirates NBD is regulated supervised and controlled by the Central Bank of the UAE (“Central Bank”) and the Securities and Commodities Authority of the UAE (“SCA”), having its head office at Baniyas Road, Deira, PO Box 777, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. This document may be distributed and/or made available by the Bank and its affiliates and subsidiaries, including Emirates NBD Capital KSA CJSC (“ENBD Capital”) (through its website, its branches or through any other modes, whether electronically or otherwise).
Emirates NBD and its affiliates, subsidiaries and group entities, including its shareholders, directors, officers, employees and agents are collectively referred to Emirates NBD Group.
This publication is prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Data/information provided in this publication are intended solely for illustrative purposes for the general information or its recipients, irrespective of their customer classification as an Ordinary Investor or Professional Investor under the SCA Regulations.
Any person (hereinafter referred to as “you”, “your”) who has received this document or have access to this document shall acknowledge and agree to the following terms.
Reliance
This publication may include data/information taken from stock exchanges or other third-party sources from around the world, which Emirates NBD reasonably believes to be reliable, fair and not misleading, but which have not been independently verified. The provision of certain data/information in this publication may be subject to the terms and conditions of other agreements to which Emirates NBD is a party. Opinions, estimates and expressions of judgment are those of the writer and are subject to change without notice. Emirates NBD or any member of Emirates NBD Group makes no representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability for the sequence, accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information or opinions contained in this publication. Nothing contained in this publication shall be construed as an assurance by Emirates NBD that you may rely upon or act on any information or data provided herein, without further independent verification of the same by you.
The contents of this document are prepared as of a particular date and time and will not reflect subsequent changes in the market or changes in any other factors, including those relevant to the determination of whether a particular investment activity is advisable. Emirates NBD does not undertake any obligation to issue any further publications or update the contents of this document. Emirates NBD may also, at its sole discretion, update or change the contents herein without notice. Emirates NBD or any member of Emirates NBD Group does not accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage caused by any act or omission by you as a result of the information contained in this publication (including by negligence).
References to any financial instrument or investment product in this document are not intended to imply that an actual trading market exists for such instrument or product. Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. The information and opinions contained in this publication is provided for informational purposes only and have not been prepared with any regard to the objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person, wherever situated. If you wish to rely on or use the information contained in this publication, you should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products mentioned herein are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. You should also independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate professional advisers or experts.
Confidentiality
This publication may be provided to you upon request (and not for distribution to the general public), on a confidential basis for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes or to be passed on or disclosed to any other person and/or to any jurisdiction that would render the distribution illegal.
Solicitation
None of the content in this publication constitutes a solicitation, offer, recommendation or opinion by Emirates NBD to buy, sell or trade in any security or to avail of any service in any jurisdiction. This document is not intended to serve as authoritative legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice regarding any security or investment, including the profitability or suitability thereof and further does not provide any fiduciary or financial advice. This document should also not be used in substitution for the exercise of the prospective investor’s judgment.
Third Party
This publication is not intended for use by, or distribution to, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such use or distribution would be contrary to law or regulation. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this publication to investigate and observe all applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdiction. This publication may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without the express consent of Emirates NBD or its affiliates, subsidiaries or group entities distributing this document. You should not use the data in this publication in any way to improve the quality of any data sold or contributed by you to any third party.
Liability
Notwithstanding anything to the contrary set forth herein, Emirates NBD, its suppliers, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives, successors, assigns, affiliates or subsidiaries shall not, directly or indirectly, be liable, in any way, to you or any other person for any: (a) inaccuracies or errors in or omissions from this publication including, but not limited to, quotes and financial data; or (b) loss or damage arising from the use of this publication, including, but not limited to any investment decision occasioned thereby. Under no circumstances, including but not limited to negligence, shall Emirates NBD, its suppliers, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives, successors, assigns, affiliates or subsidiaries be liable to you for direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, punitive, or exemplary damages even if Emirates NBD has been advised specifically of the possibility of such damages, arising from the use of this publication, including but not limited to, loss of revenue, opportunity, or anticipated profits or lost business.
This publication does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of person who receive it. The appropriateness of an investment activity or strategy will depend on the person’s individual circumstances and objectives and these activities may not be suitable for all persons. In addition, before entering into any transaction, prospective investors should: (i) ensure that they fully understand the potential risks and rewards of that transaction; (ii) determine independently whether that transaction is appropriate given an investor’s investment objectives, experience, financial and operational resources, and other relevant circumstances; (iii) understand that any rates of tax and zakat or any relief in relation thereto, as may be referred to in this publication may be subject to change over time; (iv) consult their advisers on the legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting implications of the investment; (v) understand the nature of the investment and the related contract (and contractual relationship) including, without limitation, the nature and extent of their exposure to risk; and (vi) understand any regulatory requirements and restrictions applicable to the prospective investor.
Where this publication provides any information about Shariah compliant products, the Bank will not have engaged a Shariah board (or similar body) to determine independently whether or not such products are compliant with Shariah principles. The Bank accepts no liability with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of any such determination or guidance by any Shariah board that has certified or otherwise approved such products as Shariah compliant. Nothing contained in this publication shall be construed as a recommendation by the Bank to invest in such product. In deciding whether to invest in Shariah compliant products, you should satisfy yourself that investing in such products will not contravene Shariah principles. You should consult your own Shariah advisors as to whether investing in such products is compliant or not with Shariah principles.
Forward Looking
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and should not be seen as an indication of future performance of any investment activity. The information contained in this publication does not purport to contain all matters relevant to any particular investment or financial instrument and all statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate. Certain matters in this publication about the future performance of Emirates NBD or members of its group (the Group), including without limitation, future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all other statements that are not purely historical, constitute “forward-looking statements”. Such forward-looking statements are based on current expectations or beliefs, as well as assumptions about future events, made from information currently available. Forward-looking statements often use words such as “anticipate”, “target”, “expect”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “goal”, “seek”, “believe”, “will”, “may”, “should”, “would”, “could” or other words of similar meaning. Reliance should not be placed on any such statements in making an investment decision, as forward-looking statements, by their nature, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, as well as the Group’s plans and objectives, to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized.
Risk
Data included in this publication may rely on models that do not reflect or take into account all potentially significant factors such as market risk, liquidity risk, and credit risk. Emirates NBD may use different models, make valuation adjustments, or use different methodologies when determining prices at which Emirates NBD is willing to trade financial instruments and/or when valuing its own inventory positions for its books and records. The use of this publication is at the sole risk of the investor and this publication, and anything contained herein, is provided "as is" and "as available." Emirates NBD makes no warranty of any kind, express or implied, as to this publication, including, but not limited to, merchantability, non-infringement, title, or fitness for a particular purpose or use.
Investment in financial instruments involves risks and returns may vary. The value of investment products mentioned in this document may neither be capital protected nor guaranteed and the value of the investment product and the income derived therefrom can fall as well as rise and an investor may lose the principal amount invested. Investment products are subject to several risks factors, including without limitation, market risk, high volatility, credit and default risk, illiquidity, currency risk and interest rate risk. It should be noted that the value, price or income of securities denominated in a foreign currency may be adversely affected by changes in the currency rates. It may be difficult for the investor to sell or realise the security and to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risks to which it is exposed. Furthermore, the investor will not have the right to cancel a subscription for securities once such subscription has been made. Prospective investors are hereby informed that the applicable regulations in certain jurisdictions may place certain restrictions on secondary market activities with respect to securities.
Before making an investment, investors should consult their advisers on the legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting implications of the investment. In receiving this publication, the investor acknowledges it is fully aware that there are risks associated with investment activities. Moreover, the responsibility to obtain and carefully read and understand the content of documents relating to any investment activity described in this publication and to seek separate, independent financial advice if required to assess whether a particular investment activity described herein is suitable, lies exclusively with the investor.
Intellectual property
This publication has been developed, compiled, prepared, revised, selected, and arranged by Emirates NBD and others (including certain other information sources) through the application of methods and standards of judgment developed and applied through the expenditure of substantial time, effort, and money and constitutes valuable intellectual property of Emirates NBD and such others. All present and future rights in and to trade secrets, patents, copyrights, trademarks, service marks, know-how, and other proprietary rights of any type under the laws of any governmental authority, domestic or foreign, shall, as between the investor and Emirates NBD, at all times be and remain the sole and exclusive property of Emirates NBD and/or other lawful parties.
Except as specifically permitted in writing, you should not copy or make any use of the content of this publication or any portion thereof or publish, circulate, reproduce, distribute or offer this publication for sale in whole or in part to any other person over any medium including but not limited to over-the-air television or radio broadcast, a computer network or hyperlink framing on the internet or construct a database of any kind. Except as specifically permitted in writing, you shall not use the intellectual property rights connected with this publication, or the names of any individual participant in, or contributor to, the content of this publication, or any variations or derivatives thereof, for any purpose. This publication is intended solely for non-commercial use and benefit, and not for resale or other transfer or disposition to, or use by or for the benefit of, any other person or entity. By accepting this publication, you agree not to use, transfer, distribute, copy, reproduce, publish, display, modify, create, or dispose of any information contained in this publication in any manner that could compete with the business interests of Emirates NBD. Furthermore, you should not use any of the trademarks, trade names, service marks, copyrights, or logos of Emirates NBD or its subsidiaries in any manner which creates the impression that such items belong to or are associated with you, except as otherwise provided with Emirates NBD’s prior written consent. You shall have no ownership rights in and to any of such items.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT UNITED KINGDOM
This publication was prepared by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) in the United Arab Emirates. It has been issued and approved for distribution to clients by the London branch of Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority in the UK. Some investments and services are not available to clients of the London Branch. Any services provided by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) outside the UK will not be regulated by the FCA and you will not receive all the protections afforded to retail customers under the FCA regime, such as the Financial Ombudsman Service and the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect any of the returns or income set out within this publication.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT SINGAPORE
This publication was prepared by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) in the United Arab Emirates. It has been issued and approved for distribution to clients by the Singapore branch of Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) which is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and subject to applicable laws (including the Financial Advisers Act (FAA) and the Securities and Futures Act (SFA). Any services provided by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) outside Singapore will not be regulated by the MAS or subject to the provisions of the FAA and/or SFA, and you will not receive all the protections afforded to retail customers under the FAA and/or SFA. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect any of the returns or income set out within this publication. Please contact your Relationship Manager for further details or for clarification of the contents, where appropriate. For contact information, please visit www.emiratesnbd.com.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT EMIRATES NBD CAPITAL KSA CJSC
Emirates NBD Capital KSA CJSC (“ENBD Capital”), whose registered office is at P.O. Box 341777, Riyadh 11333, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a Saudi closed joint stock company licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority (“CMA”) under License number 37-07086 dated 29/08/2007G (corresponding to 16/08/1428H) to deliver a full range of quality investment products and related support services to individuals and institutions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. ENBD Capital is subject to Capital Market Law, and Implementing Regulations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
ENBD Capital’s contact details are T +966 (11) 299 3900 and F +966 (11) 299 3955.
This document may not be distributed in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia except to such persons as are permitted under the Investment Funds Regulations issued by the Capital Market Authority.
The Capital Market Authority does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this document, and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from, or incurred in reliance upon, any part of this document. Prospective subscribers of the securities offered hereby should conduct their own due diligence on the accuracy of the information relating to the securities offered. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser.
Copyright © 2024