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Investing in the Age of Magic Money
We had our largest overweight ever in equities during the first half of 2021, against a backdrop combining the power of vaccines with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Our stance has now evolved from super bullish to constructive: we still see upside potential in selected assets, but expect elevated volatility ahead.
Watch the CIO team’s latest investment views and updates shared at the CIO Global Investment Outlook Mid-Year Webinar 2021.
Investing in the Age of Magic Money
The pandemic has lifted many taboos on public deficits and liquidity injections, starting a new era for investments “The Age of Magic Money”.
We expect volatility, but as the economic outlook is not what keeps us up at night, we remain constructive for the quarters ahead
Anita Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses her global investment outlook on Bloomberg Daybreak Middle East.
Anita Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the latest U.S. jobs data which posted its biggest gain in a year with Yousef Gamal El-Din on Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.
Concerns around China companies listed in the US around data privacy
Volatility in the crypto complex is enormous, simply unprecedented in any "liquid asset". Even calculating it is a challenge
Encouraging amount of investment activity in Q1 2021
The one thing we always follow is to encourage our clients to diversify
Global stocks had their best week in 3 months, helped by a spectacular start to the Q3 earnings season
Last week’s PMI were overall robust across the world, but price pressures remain significant
Volatility spiked last week, fueled by Evergrande debt crisis and by an important Fed meeting
Last week was negative across asset-classes, with decelerating growth and rising inflation prospects
Concerns rose over a potential peak in both economic momentum and monetary support last week
Last week’s avalanche of economic data confirmed that growth is losing momentum
The summer so far is volatile but not negative for global markets
Services recovery in full swing both in the United States and in Europe
Fed confirms overly-accommodative stance with economy still a way to go
Volatility rose last week, as global infection rates rose with the “delta wave”
Last week saw lower interest rates and an outperformance of defensive segments
H1-2021 ended well, but H2 starts with volatility and dispersion
H2-2021 starts with a trifecta of questions on the economy, the direction of policy, and the virus
Global stocks gained following US Congress significant progress on infrastructure stimulus
The “goldilocks” narrative of high growth coupled with relentless stimulus took a breather last week
Inflation was stronger than expected in May, but the real surprise was to see interest rates falling
Last week’s PMI reports signal a global boom in the current quarter…
Economic growth confirms strength in the West but interest rates are not rising anymore
Last week was quiet and overall slightly positive on conventional assets
Negative economic data in the US triggered serious volatility last week
Most of asset classes started the month with modestly positive returns
Both macro-economic data and corporate earnings were very positive last week
The week ahead will provide a clear picture on the economy and corporate earnings in Q1
Last week saw upbeat economic data, positive corporate earnings and falling interest rates
Last week confirmed the start of a booming growth episode, as well as patience from the Fed
The first quarter ended with positive economic data, confirming a build in growth momentum
The first quarter is about to end with mixed, divergent market returns
Central Banks around the world have different views and responses to inflation
President Biden’s stimulus plan got final approval with individual payments already on their way
Global PMIs and a spectacular US job reports indicate a stronger than expected activity
Rising growth and inflation forecasts pushed global yields brutally higher last week.
Daily global new infections are clearly decelerating
Markets were supported by lack of inflationary pressures and unabated stimulus
Last week was very positive for risk assets in a clear “risk-on” pattern
Global stocks had their worst week since October as retail traders attacked hedge funds’ short positions
President Trump left the White House with ultra-low ratings but stock markets at record highs
President-elect Biden announced $1.9tn fiscal stimulus, and the Fed confirmed it won’t reduce support soon
Last week was eventful with a Democratic sweep and overall disappointing economic data
Daily CIO Updates
Asian stocks are advancing this morning as investors look forward to the forthcoming earnings releases and entertain expectations for more Chinese stimulus.
Most Asian markets and US futures are sliding this morning on surging energy prices and mounting inflation concerns as Chinese Growth is slowing.
Stocks recorded their best week in nearly three months, as strong earnings offset inflation concerns, and investors bid up the most cyclical sectors
Stocks were well oriented on Wednesday, adding 0.4% on average across regions with the Euro area outperforming.
Global financial markets didn’t take a clear direction on Tuesday.
The narrative of last week combined two elements: an uptick in the global growth momentum from overall good PMI data, as well as continuous supply constraints leading to inflation pressures and disappointing job creations in the US.
Volatility remains the name of the game on global markets, but the week that just ended made a clear difference between cyclical and defensive assets.
Volatility is definitely back in financial markets, and the current week is no exception.
Not much change in the narrative from yesterday except that an upbeat ISM report cheered U.S. markets which reversed Monday’s losses with the broader U.S. indices gaining over a percent.
Higher energy prices and shortages with rising inflation worries and the possible result on global growth, led to markets starting the week on a down note.
UAE markets on their first day of extended trading yesterday, an extra hour, had a positive close from the Abu Dhabi Index with ADNOC Drilling gaining 28% on its first day of listing.
September ended for not only those in the UAE but millions of watchers globally with the most inclusive opening of the Expo 2020, a musical and sensory extravaganza with powerful visuals beamed across Al Wasl Plaza’s dome, the world’s largest 360-degree projection screen.
The last day of the quarter and even with the recent pullback, global equities are up 12% year to date and the S&P 500 +17%, numbers we expected for the full year.
The rise in Treasury yields and analogous bond sell-off that began last week on the prospect of higher interest rates reverberated into the $ 51 trillion US stock market, more so technology stocks.
Global equities fairly uneventful yesterday with small gains in emerging markets offsetting a small fall in developed markets.
Last week was volatile under the double influence of China’s Evergrande meltdown on the East, and of the US Fed on the West.
Asian stocks are rising this morning after US shares digested the prospect of the reduction in US stimulus already in November and some concerns on property developer Evergrande eased.
Most Asian stocks are leaning weaker and US futures are mixed this morning after Evergrande, the cash-strapped Chinese property developer, negotiated an interest payment with some bondholders and the PBOC made cash injections in the system.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning, with China and South Korea shut for holidays, following the S&P 500 most negative session since May yesterday, though US equity futures are recording some gains.
Stocks and US equity futures are falling this morning, as Hong Kong property developers slump, following a report that Beijing could extend its crackdown to the city’s real estate firms.
Stagflation concerns weighed on market sentiment, with equities in negative territory across the board, US stocks outperforming, and long-duration assets selling off as investors did not welcome higher yields and the forthcoming tapering decision by the Fed.
The US Consumer Price Index, a key gauge of inflation, came out slightly softer than expected yesterday, and slightly lower than in July – on both headline and core numbers.
The prevailing mood for investors last week was anxiety: the pandemic is slowing the recovery, central banks are about to start reducing their support, and several Wall Street strategists have warned about the risks of currently elevated valuations in the developed world.
Global markets are showing signs of consolidating after an exuberant year to date developed market equity performance.
In Asia this morning, China markets flat to slightly negative, after a positive day yesterday with China's Shanghai Composite Index closing up 1.5%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.7%.
This morning in Asia, Japanese equities are up with the indices extending gains from decade highs on Friday, on optimism for new economic policies with a larger spending agenda, on news that Prime Minister Suga will step down.
After a very upbeat August with both emerging and developed market equities in synch, gaining around 2.5% for the month, last week saw gains of +1.2% for global equities, taking year to date gains to 17%.
Wednesday was a quiet start to September for financial markets.
Last week was positive on global financial markets, helped by the full approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by the FDA first, and then by an overall reasonably dovish tone from the Fed’s chairman at his address on the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
The most important event of last week was expected to be Mr Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium gathering global central bankers.
The current week shows an improvement in sentiment, as Wednesday was the third consecutive positive day for risk assets.
Investors’ sentiment was improving on Tuesday, supporting risk assets.
Risk aversion dominated last week, putting global equities and commodities under pressure and supporting defensive assets.
In the Asian morning session stocks are headed higher as investors eagerly await the key US inflation report to be released today.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning, US futures are slipping and precious metals tumbling on growing conviction that the Fed is closer to pulling back stimulus.
The past week saw robust gains in global equities, with the MSCI World returning 1% and closing at all-time highs, and losses in longer-duration defensive assets following the strong US jobs report.
A positive week for risk assets so far, with Asian markets mixed this morning, following gains yesterday, with upbeat services sector reports as well as a rebound in tech shares that have recently seen pressure amid China's crackdown.
Another up day for global equities yesterday, with the US and Europe up, but Asia largely down.
Asia equities are up this morning with both mainland China and the Hang Seng Indices up around a percent and Japan up 2%.
Asian equities are rising this morning following Beijing’s efforts to calm markets and the reassuring Powell’s comments at the end of the FOMC meeting.
Risk aversion was in the air yesterday, it took hold of markets which closed in the red across the globe, with the US dropping sharply from all-time highs and eventually partially recovering the intraday losses.
Last week, global markets were kind enough to align with our view for the second half of the year, which combines a reasonably constructive stance with expectations for volatility.
Global markets were relatively volatile and a bit dispersed last week, which may signal some change in the current narrative.
Asian shares are mixed this morning, while US and European futures are retreating.
Asian shares are lower today after the modest losses on Wall Street following the CPI release.
Asian stocks were higher in the morning session following gains in the United States, with Japan and Korea in the spotlight.
Last week long-dated yields sank to five-month lows amidst disappointing data and the release of Fed minutes, which saw Fed officials planning to go ahead with tapering, perceived in the end as a deflationary development by investors.
Markets showed signs of a flight to quality for most of the week to end on a high with US stocks closing at new records.
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting were released last night, and they confirmed that the committee officially began talking about tapering asset purchases.
News headlines today are dominated by oil prices, as negotiations within the OPEC+ group have not come to an agreement yet.
Last week, markets took comfort in the abundant economic data, combining enough growth to justify elevated valuations with elements supporting a continuous stimulus support for now.
The first half of 2021 was one of the best on record for global markets, with the developed markets equity benchmark MSCI World up 13% to take a single illustration.
A flat day for global equities yesterday, though Asian markets were down a percent from mainland China, Hong Kong to Singapore and Japan.
A flat day for global equities yesterday, with small gains from the U.S. and mixed Asian markets.
This morning Asian markets are following last week’s positive performance with Hong Kong equities up over a percent while domestic China indices are up, though more muted.
Global equities gained 2.3% last week, with data signalling continued acceleration in the world economy, as well as optimism over additional fiscal stimulus.
Sometimes, the necessary assumption of capital market efficiency appears quite questionable, especially when looking at short-term price action.
Last week was negative across all asset-classes, following the modest but unexpected shift in guidance from the Federal Reserve.
Global financial markets saw a sea of red last week, with fortunately limited depth.
In the morning session Asian stocks and US futures are extending losses after the Fed’s hawkish surprise.
Stocks slipped, yields and the dollar were little changed, gold slid as investors looked ahead to the Fed meeting.
Traders are undoubtedly preparing themselves for the Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
Markets are pretty quiet this morning, maybe gifting us with a more relaxed, rather than the usual frantic start to the week.
The S&P 500 recorded its third straight weekly gain following some listless sessions in the five days through Friday.
Financial markets keep on struggling to find a clear direction, waiting for the key economic number of the week: today’s US consumer price index.
It looks like Goldilocks: economic growth is strong and globally getting stronger, while job creations in the US are contained, giving visibility on monetary policy.
Last week's avalanche of economic data provided an updated picture on the current backdrop.
Last week was rich in terms of economic data, with an avalanche of monthly leading indicators, and the most awaited US job report for May on Friday.
A positive day yesterday for both risk and safe haven assets as global equities eked out small gains, treasuries rose as did oil and gold.
The to and fro between economic optimism and inflation concerns continues to play out in markets.
This morning Asian equities are trading down after strong returns of 2.5% last week, having outperformed global equities which were up 1.4%.
Global equities continue to gain, up 1.4% last week, with China, India and the UAE contributing to the stronger +2.4% Emerging Market performance.
Wednesday was another gently positive day for global markets, as confidence on western economies’ reopening supported sentiment.
Volatility abated on Tuesday with contained price action in most of the assets we follow.
Last week was all about record volatility in crypto assets, with so far little spill over to conventional asset classes.
Last week was rich in potentially market moving news, especially around inflation and the Fed’s tapering agenda.
Equities fluctuated as investors digested Fed language interpreted to be unexpectedly hawkish in the April’s FOMC minutes.
Asian shares are sliding this morning, following in the footsteps of Wall Street’s lackluster performance the day before.
Asian equity benchmarks are firmly in positive territory this morning, including Japan in spite of some grim economic data.
Stocks are wavering on this Monday morning alongside US equity futures as rising virus cases in parts of the region are weighing on investor sentiment.
The past week was volatile, marked by inflation and cryptocurrency scares, with stocks closing the five days through Friday with minor losses and investors buying the dip, the dollar and gold ending little changed and long-dated Treasury yields still hovering within a holding pattern in spite of growing price pressures.
The year is progressing much as it began. A slightly up day for global equities taking year to date total returns to 9.6%.
Global equities closed down yesterday, falling 0.8%. Asia finished mixed as markets in China and Japan remained closed for holidays, while Europe and US closed lower.
The main event influencing markets yesterday was a slew of manufacturing reports and global equities ended the day slightly higher and in sync with Aprils positive returns.
Markets were weaker across the board on Friday with the S&P 500 little changed on the week and Europe and Asia equities posting modest losses.
First, President Joe Biden, in a formal address to the US Congress, laid out a third stimulus plan.
Stock markets were overall little changed on Wednesday, despite a rise in interest rates.
Last week started on a nervous note but ended reasonably well on financial markets.
From a campaign idea to a project: the Biden administration has confirmed preparing a second economic plan, targeting infrastructure, carbon emissions and inequalities, with an astonishing tentative amount of $3 trillion.
Stocks in Asia are in positive territory as of the time of writing after US stocks snapped a two-day decline to gain almost 1%.
The major stock markets closed in the red on rising global virus cases prompting some profit-taking.
This morning markets in Asia are weak, following yesterday’s retreat of US stocks from all-time highs.
Asian shares are climbing as of the time of writing and US futures paring a drop with the strong recovery and corporate earnings coming into focus.
It was an eventful week on many fronts, with stocks, bonds and commodities registering positive returns.
Markets were relatively quiet on Wednesday. Global stocks added 0.3% on average, led by emerging markets.
Inflation data for March in the US was the key release of yesterday. The CPI report came in higher than the median forecast from economists.
After the records of last week, Monday's session was mildly negative on financial markets.
Last week was positive on all asset classes. Robust economic data supported cyclical assets.
One headline last week illustrates the current situation: the usually pessimistic IMF revised up its world economic outlook for the third time.
Another flat day for global equities, however maintaining the record highs for many markets.
Major global equity indices were largely unchanged yesterday, except for European equities which gained 0.7%.
Global equities were up a percent yesterday with the S&P 500 extending gains into a third session with European equities up too.
A strong start for quarter two for markets last week across regions and sectors after a buoyant Q1.
It has been a good quarter and a good week for equity markets, though beset with severe daily ups and downs.
Here we go again. The unwinding of excessive leverage taken by a large family office, Archegos Capital Management, reverberated across markets raising uncertainty.
Asian stocks are keeping steady this morning, though US equity futures are dipping as investors weigh possible knock-on effects from a wave of unprecedentedly large block trades.s
Risk appetite returned to markets following dovish Fedspeak and Biden’s announcement of aggressive vaccine roll-outs.
Global markets are in a constant adjustment between two opposite forces: the short-term trajectory of the recovery is uncertain, with a resurgence in infections, while the medium-term recovery reignites fears on inflation and rates.
Tuesday was a bad day for global markets, following data showing an unexpected increase in the number of new cases globally.
From a campaign idea to a project: the Biden administration has confirmed preparing a second economic plan, targeting infrastructure, carbon emissions and inequalities, with an astonishing tentative amount of $3 trillion.
Last week was volatile and overall negative for most asset classes, after an update on policies from central banks failed to reverse the rise in bond yields.
Central Banks took center stage last week, with the US Federal Reserve holding their monthly committee on Wednesday.
The so much awaited big Fed day ended with big market moves, following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting where chair Powell basically reiterated the Average Inflation Targeting approach.
Stocks in Asia are showing no clear direction this morning, yesterday were mixed in the United States and put in sub-1% gains in Europe.
Asian stocks are in the green this morning, following the positive session in the United States, where shares reached new all-time highs on optimism about the economic recovery.
In spite of US long-dated yields being at the highs of the year, markets are having a positive start to the week, with US futures and equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia advancing.
Global equities ended the week on a very strong note, with indices of the developed countries clearly outperforming their emerging peers, the US reaching a new record and Europe leading markets higher.
On Wednesday, Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan passed the final vote at the US House of Representatives.
Tuesday was interesting on global markets, with what we could call a “rotation of the rotation”.
Volatility was the name of the game last week, as a stream of good fundamental news pushed interest rates and inflations expectations higher, sending shockwaves across markets.
Bad fundamental news are not what markets dislike the most: uncertainty is. Last week was another example of this well-known behavioural lesson.
After a strong performance from Asia markets yesterday, with China and Hong Kong equity indices up over 2%, this morning major markets in Asia are trading down following the US close yesterday.
Asian markets are up this morning, with China and Hong Kong in the lead after falling around a percent yesterday, in line with global equities which were down half a percent.
This morning Asian equities are slightly negative, after a broad risk on day for markets globally yesterday with global equities up 2%, almost wiping out last week’s 3% fall.
After a week of yield driven market movements, with global equities losing 3% and 10 year Treasury yields rising mid-week to 1.51%, Monday has begun with a stabilization in sovereign bonds, a lower US dollar, signaling somewhat calmer markets with equity indices in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong trading up over a percent.
An intense week of equity volatility with markets yo-yoing between gains and losses.
Nobody really knows whether inflation will rise, but there is no ambiguity that the Fed will remain very accommodative for long.
Tuesday started with some volatility but ended quietly when market participants found comfort in the two awaited items of the day: Jerome Powell’s speech and the US consumer confidence.
Fundamental news are good, combining slowing infections, rising vaccinations, resilient economies and increased policy support.
The key market move of last week was a rise in interest rates, as signs converged for a steady economic recovery from Q2.
The key news of last week converged to set the stage for a strong recovery in the quarters ahead.
The quick rise in global Treasury yields did not go down well with markets and stocks saw one more mixed-to-weak session.
Yesterday was quite eventful, not so much for equities, which closed mixed to little changed depending on geographies and markets, as for bonds.
Stocks closed on a stronger note across the EM countries, in Europe and in Japan, alongside US futures pushing to new highs on occasion of the Presidents Day holiday.
Asian stocks are advancing, alongside US futures ticking higher on this President’s Day holiday, which sees the cash markets closed in the United States.
Stocks closed at new all-time highs both in the United States and in the emerging markets, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.2% and 1.7% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index 2.3% for the week respectively.
Let’s start with the key number released yesterday: +1.4%. This is the US Consumer Price Index year-on-year change as of January, which is of course the main gauge of inflation.
Let’s start with history: yesterday, Hope Probe successfully entered the orbit of Mars at 7.42 PM Dubai time.
As we wrote yesterday, last week was very positive for risk assets, lifting several equity indices to record highs and interest rates at a 2021 high.
January ended with a very negative week, combining surging Covid-19 infections, delays on US fiscal stimulus and the largest de-risking from hedge funds in a decade, under attack by retail investors on the dubbed “meme stocks”.
A strong February so far with most global indices back in the green and global equities up 2.6% year to date.
Another positive day for global equities with a strong risk on rally.
February has on its first trading day seen a global equity rally with lower volatility and technology once again taking leadership.
A volatile week for global equities which ended up 3.5% lower, ending January down by half a percent.
Global financial markets struggled to find a clear direction on Monday, integrating the risk of the US fiscal relief package to be delayed.
Last week was positive across financial markets: all the major asset classes delivered positive returns.
The Asian markets have been rising for a third straight session this morning, led by Japan and South Korea as global growth expectations are positively affected by more forthcoming US stimulus.
In the morning session stocks are mixed in Asia, with Australia headed higher and Japan in losing territory, while US futures are struggling for direction.
In the Asian morning session stocks are steady, with the Nikkei225 leading gains.
In the Asian morning session stocks are generally weaker alongside US futures, in spite of data from China pointing to a continuation of the strong recovery, with the economy back to the pre-pandemic growth rate in the fourth quarter.
Wednesday was relatively quiet on financial markets. Global stocks were little changed in developed regions and slightly down in their emerging peers
Financial markets are looking for a direction, hesitating between strong short-term headwinds and brighter medium term prospects
After a strong first week of 2021, Monday’s session on global markets was negative on pretty much everything.
The Democratic party gaining control of both houses of the US congress was the key reason behind last week’s rise in cyclical assets, with a heightened probability of more fiscal stimulus.
The first week of 2021 was eventful and volatile, but positive for cyclical assets.
Global equities gained close to half a percent yesterday with most major markets up. Major news affecting markets include Democratic control of the US Senate, the 10 year Treasury yield over 1%, oil continuing to gain and Coronavirus spread leading to continued lockdowns.
Global markets saw a broad rally yesterday with most sectors and regions up, barring the Eurozone.
The first day of trade in 2021 for most global markets saw mixed performance from Developed Market equities with U.S. indices lower, though ending off session lows, Eurozone equities positive and the UK rallying.
The first markets to start trading in 2021 are the GCC, with the first trading day yesterday
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