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Low Visibility Ahead
Heated by the sunshine of a vibrant recovery, the magic liquidity is evaporating, and turning into fog for investors. While growth remains robust, markets may not be ready for the new uncertainties around central banks, inflation and interest rates, to name a few. We are getting prepared to navigate tactically, in a year of ‘low visibility ahead’.
MARKET MATTERS: Listen to our latest podcast episode
Businesses in the UAE are putting sustainability at the core of their operations to meet both national targets and access new sources of capital. Ibrahim al Zubi, chief sustainability officer of Majid Al Futtaim, joins us to talk about the steps they have taken to instill a culture of sustainability across their operations at Majid Al Futtaim group.
Inspiring What's Next Insights
Explore our new insights section for interesting articles and trends around wealth management
Anita Krishna Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy discusses the impact of the Fed's rate hike on global markets, what would be an interest rate sweet point for equities. She speaks with Manus Cranny on 'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.'
Maurice Gravier, Chief Investment Officer discusses how this year should see slower growth, higher inflation, and, crucially for markets, an accelerated tightening from western central banks.
Maurice Gravier, Chief Investment Officer discusses how even with Covid in China, the war in Ukraine, and the tightening fever in Washington, there are opportunities for the long-run.
Anita Krishna Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy discusses inflation risks, the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and her global equity investment strategy. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din on 'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.'
Anita Krishna Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, CIO Office discusses how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is roiling the markets, U.S. Jobs data and her investment strategy. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din on 'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.'
Maurice Gravier, Chief Investment Officer, shares his insights into the vibrant world of the cryptoverse as seen from the eyes of an old-school investment professional.
Anita Krishna Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, CIO Office discusses her investment outlook ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data out on Feb. 10. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din and Manus Cranny on 'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.'
Maurice Gravier, Chief Investment Officer, discusses what to look out for in global markets during 2022.
Anita Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses her asset allocation strategy for U.S. and discusses how higher rates and inflation could affect profit margins. She speaks with Manus Cranny on Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.
Property has been one of the best performing asset classes in the UK so far this year as the recovery continues.
Anita Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses how rate decisions could impact stocks and gives her global investment strategy. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din on ‘Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East’
Maurice Gravier, Chief Investment Officer, discusses the Fed’s stance on inflation, U.S. job report and infrastructure bill, as well as China's trade numbers. He speaks with Manus Cranny on 'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East'.
We expect volatility, but as the economic outlook is not what keeps us up at night, we remain constructive for the quarters ahead
Anita Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses her global investment outlook on Bloomberg Daybreak Middle East.
The UK Real Estate market has performed strongly in Q2 2021, as COVID restrictions have eased, and activity begins its recovery. Get more details from our experts in the full report.
Anita Gupta, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the latest U.S. jobs data which posted its biggest gain in a year with Yousef Gamal El-Din on Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.
Concerns around China companies listed in the US around data privacy
Volatility in the crypto complex is enormous, simply unprecedented in any "liquid asset". Even calculating it is a challenge
Encouraging amount of investment activity in Q1 2021
The one thing we always follow is to encourage our clients to diversify
Stocks from developed markets surged last week, which was broadly positive for most asset classes
“Whatever it takes” is not market-friendly as Western central banks are all-in against inflation
Markets were volatile last week with broadly but limited negative returns
Financial markets were well oriented last week, ending a seven-week streak of declines
The current volatility results from a drastic change in the relation between central banks and markets
Last week was extremely volatile -again- and overall negative for most markets…
Powell’s terminal rate “between 2% and 3%” fails to woo investors
Markets are under pressure from hawkish central banks’ rhetoric, war uncertainty and slowing growth
2022 will see slower growth, higher inflation, and accelerated tightening from central banks
The FOMC minutes confirmed an accelerated tightening, sending shockwaves across markets
Conflict rages on in spite of Russia’s focus on separatist republics
Tail risk of sharper slowdown growing but recession not in the offing
The Fed was hawkish but confident, delivering an aggressive but clear roadmap on interest rates.
The crisis in Ukraine is inevitably impacting inflation and growth on a global scale.
A week of war ended with peak uncertainty as the US considers en embargo on Russian oil.
It’s a war: Russia’s unexpected full-scale invasion of Ukraine shocked the world and roiled markets.
Inflation concerns remain high in the West but much less so in China.
Inflation is here, faster and broader than expected, culminating with US CPI up 7.5% year on year.
Last week confirmed a broad hawkish shift from Western central banks, at rapid pace.
Last week was, again, extremely volatile after the Fed confirmed its hawkish stance.
Risk aversion was exacerbated last week, with a sell-off in the most widely held assets.
2022 starts with inflation, growth and policy challenges questioning elevated valuations.
After the procyclical exuberance of 2021, 2022 should transition to more normal returns
2021 has been another positive year for investments, backed by an impressive economic recovery
Fears over the impact of Omicron on the economic outlook are abating
Uncertainty prevails on financial markets as Omicron is spreading globally
A new variant of SARS-Cov2 was first identified in South Africa and is already spreading
Last week was overall negative across financial markets
Last week was dominated by stand-out inflation reports from the US and China
Last week was positive across all major asset classes: stocks, bonds, and gold
Business cycle slowed further in Q3 with price pressures far from ‘transitory’
Last week was positive on global markets, led by risk assets
Global stocks had their best week in 3 months, helped by a spectacular start to the Q3 earnings season
Last week’s PMI were overall robust across the world, but price pressures remain significant
Q3 starts with questions about an unfavorable mix of growth and inflation and debt-ceiling angst
Volatility spiked last week, fueled by Evergrande debt crisis and by an important Fed meeting
Last week was negative across asset-classes, with decelerating growth and rising inflation prospects
Concerns rose over a potential peak in both economic momentum and monetary support last week
Last week’s avalanche of economic data confirmed that growth is losing momentum
The summer so far is volatile but not negative for global markets
Services recovery in full swing both in the United States and in Europe
Fed confirms overly-accommodative stance with economy still a way to go
Volatility rose last week, as global infection rates rose with the “delta wave”
Last week saw lower interest rates and an outperformance of defensive segments
H1-2021 ended well, but H2 starts with volatility and dispersion
H2-2021 starts with a trifecta of questions on the economy, the direction of policy, and the virus
Global stocks gained following US Congress significant progress on infrastructure stimulus
The “goldilocks” narrative of high growth coupled with relentless stimulus took a breather last week
Inflation was stronger than expected in May, but the real surprise was to see interest rates falling
Last week’s PMI reports signal a global boom in the current quarter…
Economic growth confirms strength in the West but interest rates are not rising anymore
Last week was quiet and overall slightly positive on conventional assets
Negative economic data in the US triggered serious volatility last week
Most of asset classes started the month with modestly positive returns
Both macro-economic data and corporate earnings were very positive last week
The week ahead will provide a clear picture on the economy and corporate earnings in Q1
Last week saw upbeat economic data, positive corporate earnings and falling interest rates
Last week confirmed the start of a booming growth episode, as well as patience from the Fed
The first quarter ended with positive economic data, confirming a build in growth momentum
The first quarter is about to end with mixed, divergent market returns
Central Banks around the world have different views and responses to inflation
President Biden’s stimulus plan got final approval with individual payments already on their way
Global PMIs and a spectacular US job reports indicate a stronger than expected activity
Rising growth and inflation forecasts pushed global yields brutally higher last week.
Daily global new infections are clearly decelerating
Markets were supported by lack of inflationary pressures and unabated stimulus
Last week was very positive for risk assets in a clear “risk-on” pattern
Global stocks had their worst week since October as retail traders attacked hedge funds’ short positions
President Trump left the White House with ultra-low ratings but stock markets at record highs
President-elect Biden announced $1.9tn fiscal stimulus, and the Fed confirmed it won’t reduce support soon
Last week was eventful with a Democratic sweep and overall disappointing economic data
Daily CIO Updates
The rally in Asian stocks is fizzling out this morning amidst growing concerns about high inflation and slowing growth.
The past week gave indications that US inflation may be moderating and growth cooling, which helped stocks and bonds rally.
Global stocks were modestly up on average yesterday but importantly US shares closed on a positive tone, gaining +1%.
Fed Chair Powell testified before the US Senate yesterday and said in essence that an economic recession is “certainly a possibility” as achieving a soft landing would be “very challenging”.
As we wrote yesterday, the summer solstice brought some warmth to risk assets. Global stocks rose +1.1% on average, led by the US closing +2.3% higher.
The summer solstice with plenty of sunshine on the longest day of the year, could hopefully bring some respite to markets which have had one of the worst 6 month performance in years.
Central bank rate hikes had the Fed not exactly surprising with a 75-bps hike, the BOE by 25bps and the ECB giving direction for a July hike, but still the markets reacted sharply to the inflation and growth narrative.
Wednesday’s rally was short lived as growth scare sank cyclical assets yesterday.
Wednesday ended well for all asset classes, after the US Federal Reserve held their monthly policy meeting.
All eyes on the Fed today for rate direction as the higher rates affect not only the US economy, but emerging markets too, as a stronger USD affects inflows.
A broad sell off across asset classes and global equities fell -3.6%, US equities -4%, the Euro area -2.4% and Japanese equities were -3.0% yesterday.
A tumultuous week for all asset classes with only gold and energy prices up for the week.
Developed-market stocks fell yesterday following the ECB’s pivot to tighter policy to fight inflation.
Markets were generally weaker yesterday, with US stocks retracing part of the previous session’s gains and declines extending to all but one of the major sectors.
Stocks in Asia are advancing this morning, with Japan leading gains, following US benchmarks yesterday ending at session highs.
Stocks in Asia are mixed this morning as investors assess the jump in treasury yields on asset valuations and the economy, while US futures are slipping.
Stocks in Asia and US futures are rising this morning, with Beijing’s reopening soothing investors’ fragile mood weighed down by rates and inflation concerns.
Wednesday was negative for most asset classes, following strong economic data in the US.
Global stocks lost -0.4% on average in developed markets Tuesday, with the US closing - 0.8% lower, as trading resumed after a holiday The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 2.84%, which is +11 basis points higher than Friday.
Global markets were relatively quiet this Monday as US markets were closed for a holiday.
We haven’t written this on a Monday for long: last week was very positive for financial markets.
A rally across most regions with global equities gaining for a second day, +1.5% yesterday and all sectors up.
Global equities gave up Monday’s gains, falling almost a percent yesterday amid a broad sell off, from Asian markets in the morning to Europe in the afternoon and the US later in the day.
Asian markets mostly lower this morning following a down day yesterday for Hong Kong and China, with Japan a standout, which was up.
A seventh week of decline for global equities which fell a percent last week, taking year to date performance to -17% with mounting concerns around the growth outlook and recession risk and Central Bank hawkishness to combat inflation.
The negative orientation of markets moderated on Thursday, with global stocks retreating -0.6% on average, as US indices recovered from their session low to close at -0.4%.
US markets close -4% lower on Wednesday, their worse intraday performance in almost 2 years.
Risk appetite was back on Tuesday, with global stocks rising +1.3% on average in developed markets, led by a +2.2% gain in the US.
Last week was extremely volatile and overall negative for most markets.
Asia is in an upbeat mood this morning in a week that has so far seen volatility across stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies.
Asian stocks are falling this morning following yesterday’s Wall Street slide on bad inflation readings spurring bets for more aggressive tightening.
US futures are climbing as of the time of writing following the paring of early losses in China with no obvious catalyst, although the other main Asia markets remain mostly in the red.
Volatility remains extreme on global markets with constant changes of directions.
After an initial positive start, Tuesday ended badly for financial markets.
Monday started on a clear risk-off tone but the US session was better.
It’s a difficult year for investments so far, and the third week of April was no exception. All major asset classes had negative weekly returns.
Monetary tightening and inflation continue to drive markets globally.
Global equities gained yesterday with the US S&P 500 flat, the Nasdaq losing around a percent and European equities trading up 0.8%.
Overnight treasuries lower (US 10 year yield at 2.93%) on more hawkish Fed speak, gold lower, global equities higher and the Vix lower, oil lower but steady with Brent at $108/ barrel.
Yesterday saw Asian markets i.e. mainland China, Japan and India equities traded down and moving West (European markets were closed), US equities were flat after having fallen 3% in April month to date.
Equities sold off broadly last week, between 1 – 2% across most regions, with technology a little worse off.
Thursday was the end of the week for many markets which will be closed for the Easter weekend, especially in the West.
The US March CPI number came out yesterday and showed a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of +8.5%.
Monday was a tough start to the week for financial markets, with concerns about inflation and central bank tightening weighing on all asset classes.
After the storm the calm, so markets stabilized following the release of the Fed minutes that caused heightened volatility on Wednesday.
Sessions remain highly volatile depending on the news flow and the kind of expectations, or hopes, market participants erratically cling to.
Stocks in Asia are mixed this morning and crude climbed as investors gauge the prospect for new sanctions on Russia, while US and European futures are fluctuating.
Asian stocks are up this morning boosted by a rally in Hong Kong following the easing of a dispute between China and the US over audits, while US futures are little-changed and Treasuries are falling on the outlook for accelerated rate hikes by the Fed.
Asian markets are trading down a percent this morning, across the board from Japan to Hong Kong and domestic China shares following a broadly positive day yesterday.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations yesterday were termed "constructive" and ignited hopes for an eventual resolution.
Following yesterdays’ positive close for the U.S. and European equity markets, Asian markets are trading up this morning.
A second week of gains for global equities and a sell off in bond markets with the 10 year US treasury yield at 2.52% and the 2 year at 2.35% this morning, continuing last week’s rise.
Global stocks from developed markets were unchanged on average this Thursday due to a positive end to the US session, closing +1.4% higher.
The recent pattern of bond sell-off and equity rally made a pause Wednesday.
The bond sell-off continued on Tuesday, while equities were broadly supported as market participants adjust to the Fed scenario combining resilient growth with inflation.
The first day of the week was relatively quiet on stock markets, which were overall -0.1% lower in DM and +0.1% better in EM.
Last week was dominated by two topics, the war in Ukraine and the US Federal Reserve meeting.
Wednesday was Fed day: the central bank hiked 25 basis points as expected, and delivered an overall hawkish message which combined realism on inflation with confidence in growth.
Extreme volatility remains the name of the game, and Tuesday was no exception, with a radical shift from risk aversion to risk appetite during the US trading session.
Financial markets were mixed on Monday, with the key move being the sharp increase in bond yields.
Last week was a sea of red for market returns across all asset classes, with the only exception of gold, up +0.9%.
Broad risk off sentiment in equity markets, as another round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with no positive developments after increased optimism yesterday of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Global equities rebounded yesterday from levels which were in bear territory for some indices including the German Dax.
Many commodities remain at high levels with Brent oil trading at $130, and gasoline and jet fuel in the US consequently at record highs.
Global equities fell 2.7% yesterday, one of their worst days in the past year as US and Western allies debated whether to ban Russian commodity imports with inflation concerns around energy, agricultural and key metals rising.
The war in Ukraine with Russian troops continuing to use military power into incursions into the country and last week taking control of the nuclear power plant is not only having a severe humanitarian toll but also changing the face of geopolitics.
Sentiment is versatile, and risk aversion came back on Thursday. Global stocks fell -0.5% on average, with the US closing down -0.8% while Europe had a more severe -2% drop.
The war in Ukraine is intensifying and commodity prices continue to skyrocket.
The war in Ukraine intensifies, with reports of devastating fire, including the bombing of residential areas.
Russia shocked the world last week with a broadly unexpected full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Asian markets are in positive territory this morning, US equity futures slipping, gold and oil are rising, as the Ukrainian conflict clouds the outlook for the global economic recovery.
US futures and Asian markets are plunging this morning as the Ukrainian crisis deepens.
US equity futures are rising and Asian stocks mixed this morning as investors gauge the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and allies on Ukraine.
Stocks have continued to drop as the Ukrainian crisis still takes center stage.
The minutes of the January FMOC meeting, and the unfolding of the Russia-US standoff must have been top of mind for investors, with the hope that the economy remains resilient enough to tide markets over very stormy waters.
US equity futures are climbing this morning, and safer assets like gold and treasuries are slipping on the prospect of a meeting agreed late Thursday between American and Russian officials in the attempt to break the current stalemate
US equity futures are little changed as of the time of writing, and Asian stocks are mixed to positive in the morning session.
After a Kremlin declaration affirming that diplomacy is always possible, Russia’s defense ministry signaled yesterday the withdrawal of some of the troops.
The situation in Ukraine, combined with prospects for faster tightening from Western central banks, continued to weigh on markets on Monday.
Last week was another highly volatile one, with risk-aversion culminating after the US CPI hit the screens on Thursday, with the geopolitical standoff around Ukraine as a backdrop.
This morning stocks are under pressure and bonds extending Thursday’s losses following the jump in US inflation.
A broad based rally across markets from Asia to the US yesterday has been followed by a flat to positive Asia open this morning.
Global markets continue to seesaw from losses one day to gains the next.
Global equities ended a little down with both emerging and developed markets in line.
Government yields rose across US and Europe yet equities had a good week as markets are taking inflation more in stride and earnings are supportive.
After a relatively quiet start to the week, risk aversion came back on Thursday.
Volatility continues to be the main characteristic of 2022 so far.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning, while US futures are climbing, supported by strong after-market earnings from Apple helping the Nasdaq 100 outperform the S&P 500 futures.
US equity futures and Asian stocks are retreating this morning, as investors are digesting an unexpectedly more hawkish Powell.
US equity futures are climbing and Asian stocks mixed this morning following one more volatile session on Wall Street Tuesday.
Asian stocks and US equity futures are declining this morning amidst rising geopolitical tensions, following yesterday’s wild swings.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, while US futures are rebounding as traders look forward to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting statement to gain clues about the timing of the Fed’s planned tightening.
Global stocks from developed markets fell by an average -0.4% on Wednesday.
Global markets are in the process of repricing their monetary policy expectations.
Stock markets were well oriented in developed regions on Monday, except for the US closed for a holiday.
Asia equities trading lower this morning with mainland China weaker on the open, with India, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea also down.
It’s been an up day as everything rose- treasuries, global equities, gold, oil and cryptocurrencies.
Markets remain volatile with intraday and daily swings from negative to positive territory and vice versa.
Global equities have started off 2022 down 1.5% in the first week of trading, with U.S. equities faring worse -1.8% for the week with the high growth tech sector selling off, the Nasdaq Index fell 4.5%.
Thursday’s session on global stock markets saw Europe and Asia falling, following the previous close of the US, while Wall Street had a better end to its session, roughly unchanged.
The volatility we expect throughout 2022 seems to have already started.
In spite of a sharp policy pivot, Jerome Powell at the end of yesterday’s FOMC meeting managed to deliver a message not more hawkish than the consensus was already expecting, hence markets ended the session with a relief rally.
Market volatility has steadily increased since Powell’s tones have become more hawkish on prospective policy for 2022, and risk off sentiment yesterday was broad across asset classes as investors awaited the Fed chair’s message to be delivered today after the FOMC.
Most Asian stocks are slipping this morning and caution prevailed in global markets yesterday ahead of a flurry of central bank meetings, with the Fed expected to deliver a hawkish message of accelerated tapering on Wednesday.
Stocks have opened higher this morning in Asia, with the Nikkei 225 leading, while US futures are edging higher.
Global stocks came back strongly following the Omicron scare, with US equities recording their best week since February, in spite of still high inflation readings, and technology and consumer staples leading the advance.
Daily returns yesterday were a bit quieter than earlier this week.
Risk appetite was definitely back on Tuesday with a greatly pro-cyclical session.
Last week was mixed and differentiating on global markets: the fixed income asset class was supported by falling interest rates while a wave of profit taking sent tech stocks and cryptocurrencies lower.
Most global equity indices traded up yesterday, barring Hong Kong and Japan, after Friday’s rout, following news of the discovery of the Omicron coronavirus variant in South Africa.
Last week ended with global equities falling 2.2.%on Friday as markets reacted to news of South Africa reporting cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
Discovery of a new COVID variant called “Omicron”, by scientists, with a number of cases recorded in South Africa, sent a wave of caution through global markets on Friday.
Financial markets were quieter yesterday, with broadly flat returns across asset classes.
Nervosity keeps on dominating markets, torn between a positive scenario of robust recovery, and a sinister one combining rising infections and faster than expected tapering from central banks.
Last week was negative across most asset classes with a double stream of concerns
The returns of last week were negative for most major asset classes.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning and Treasuries are steady, as inflation remains at the forefront of trader minds bringing closer the prospect for tighter policy.
Global stocks were in the green again, and rightly so, with both macro- and earnings releases delivering the clear message that stagflation may be in investor minds.
Most Asian markets are rising this morning and the yuan is appreciating as traders monitor the first virtual summit between President Joe Biden and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Asian shares are mixed this morning, although the PBoC rolled over all of the policy loans falling due this month in a bid to support growth.
The MSCI World Index put in a lacklustre performance for the week, yet much less so at a country level.
The single most important number of this week was out yesterday, and it was spectacular.
This is the week of monthly inflation indices around the world, and it started yesterday with the US October PPI - Producer Price Index.
Monday was not bad for global markets, with modest but positive returns across most asset classes.
Last week was positive for all asset classes, with robust corporate and economic data supporting cyclical assets on one side
Cyclical assets were supported by two factors. First, Q3 corporate numbers confirmed day after day a strong earnings growth.
Global markets had a long-planned date with Fed’s chairman Powell yesterday after their November FOMC meeting, and we have an update.
A rally for Dubai property stocks led to the Index gaining almost 4% yesterday with Emaar Properties and Emaar Malls up over 7% and the DFM stock almost limit up
This morning Asia markets are +/- half a percent with India equities up as are Hong Kong whilst Japan and mainland China are trading down.
Global markets had a good week and a good month. Developed Markets added to their year-to-date gains and were up 5.7%
Sentiment was negative on global markets this Wednesday, with stocks down -0.5% in developed markets and -1% in emerging ones.
Global stocks added 0.1% in developed markets and slipped -0.2% in emerging regions on Tuesday.
Monday was positive on global markets with stocks gaining 0.4% in developed markets and 0.9% in emerging.
Last week was positive for stocks, supported by a strong start to the Q3 earnings season, while defensive assets were under modest but continuous pressure from steady interest rates.
Last week was relatively positive for financial markets, led by risk assets.
Asian stocks are in the green this morning following the US rally, with Japan, South Korea and Australia advancing.
Asian stocks are advancing this morning as investors look forward to the forthcoming earnings releases and entertain expectations for more Chinese stimulus.
Most Asian markets and US futures are sliding this morning on surging energy prices and mounting inflation concerns as Chinese Growth is slowing.
Stocks recorded their best week in nearly three months, as strong earnings offset inflation concerns, and investors bid up the most cyclical sectors
Stocks were well oriented on Wednesday, adding 0.4% on average across regions with the Euro area outperforming.
Global financial markets didn’t take a clear direction on Tuesday.
The narrative of last week combined two elements: an uptick in the global growth momentum from overall good PMI data, as well as continuous supply constraints leading to inflation pressures and disappointing job creations in the US.
Volatility remains the name of the game on global markets, but the week that just ended made a clear difference between cyclical and defensive assets.
Volatility is definitely back in financial markets, and the current week is no exception.
Not much change in the narrative from yesterday except that an upbeat ISM report cheered U.S. markets which reversed Monday’s losses with the broader U.S. indices gaining over a percent.
Higher energy prices and shortages with rising inflation worries and the possible result on global growth, led to markets starting the week on a down note.
UAE markets on their first day of extended trading yesterday, an extra hour, had a positive close from the Abu Dhabi Index with ADNOC Drilling gaining 28% on its first day of listing.
September ended for not only those in the UAE but millions of watchers globally with the most inclusive opening of the Expo 2020, a musical and sensory extravaganza with powerful visuals beamed across Al Wasl Plaza’s dome, the world’s largest 360-degree projection screen.
The last day of the quarter and even with the recent pullback, global equities are up 12% year to date and the S&P 500 +17%, numbers we expected for the full year.
The rise in Treasury yields and analogous bond sell-off that began last week on the prospect of higher interest rates reverberated into the $ 51 trillion US stock market, more so technology stocks.
Global equities fairly uneventful yesterday with small gains in emerging markets offsetting a small fall in developed markets.
Last week was volatile under the double influence of China’s Evergrande meltdown on the East, and of the US Fed on the West.
Asian stocks are rising this morning after US shares digested the prospect of the reduction in US stimulus already in November and some concerns on property developer Evergrande eased.
Most Asian stocks are leaning weaker and US futures are mixed this morning after Evergrande, the cash-strapped Chinese property developer, negotiated an interest payment with some bondholders and the PBOC made cash injections in the system.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning, with China and South Korea shut for holidays, following the S&P 500 most negative session since May yesterday, though US equity futures are recording some gains.
Stocks and US equity futures are falling this morning, as Hong Kong property developers slump, following a report that Beijing could extend its crackdown to the city’s real estate firms.
Stagflation concerns weighed on market sentiment, with equities in negative territory across the board, US stocks outperforming, and long-duration assets selling off as investors did not welcome higher yields and the forthcoming tapering decision by the Fed.
The US Consumer Price Index, a key gauge of inflation, came out slightly softer than expected yesterday, and slightly lower than in July – on both headline and core numbers.
The prevailing mood for investors last week was anxiety: the pandemic is slowing the recovery, central banks are about to start reducing their support, and several Wall Street strategists have warned about the risks of currently elevated valuations in the developed world.
Global markets are showing signs of consolidating after an exuberant year to date developed market equity performance.
In Asia this morning, China markets flat to slightly negative, after a positive day yesterday with China's Shanghai Composite Index closing up 1.5%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.7%.
This morning in Asia, Japanese equities are up with the indices extending gains from decade highs on Friday, on optimism for new economic policies with a larger spending agenda, on news that Prime Minister Suga will step down.
After a very upbeat August with both emerging and developed market equities in synch, gaining around 2.5% for the month, last week saw gains of +1.2% for global equities, taking year to date gains to 17%.
Wednesday was a quiet start to September for financial markets.
Last week was positive on global financial markets, helped by the full approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by the FDA first, and then by an overall reasonably dovish tone from the Fed’s chairman at his address on the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
The most important event of last week was expected to be Mr Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium gathering global central bankers.
The current week shows an improvement in sentiment, as Wednesday was the third consecutive positive day for risk assets.
Investors’ sentiment was improving on Tuesday, supporting risk assets.
Risk aversion dominated last week, putting global equities and commodities under pressure and supporting defensive assets.
In the Asian morning session stocks are headed higher as investors eagerly await the key US inflation report to be released today.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning, US futures are slipping and precious metals tumbling on growing conviction that the Fed is closer to pulling back stimulus.
The past week saw robust gains in global equities, with the MSCI World returning 1% and closing at all-time highs, and losses in longer-duration defensive assets following the strong US jobs report.
A positive week for risk assets so far, with Asian markets mixed this morning, following gains yesterday, with upbeat services sector reports as well as a rebound in tech shares that have recently seen pressure amid China's crackdown.
Another up day for global equities yesterday, with the US and Europe up, but Asia largely down.
Asia equities are up this morning with both mainland China and the Hang Seng Indices up around a percent and Japan up 2%.
Asian equities are rising this morning following Beijing’s efforts to calm markets and the reassuring Powell’s comments at the end of the FOMC meeting.
Risk aversion was in the air yesterday, it took hold of markets which closed in the red across the globe, with the US dropping sharply from all-time highs and eventually partially recovering the intraday losses.
Last week, global markets were kind enough to align with our view for the second half of the year, which combines a reasonably constructive stance with expectations for volatility.
Global markets were relatively volatile and a bit dispersed last week, which may signal some change in the current narrative.
Asian shares are mixed this morning, while US and European futures are retreating.
Asian shares are lower today after the modest losses on Wall Street following the CPI release.
Asian stocks were higher in the morning session following gains in the United States, with Japan and Korea in the spotlight.
Last week long-dated yields sank to five-month lows amidst disappointing data and the release of Fed minutes, which saw Fed officials planning to go ahead with tapering, perceived in the end as a deflationary development by investors.
Markets showed signs of a flight to quality for most of the week to end on a high with US stocks closing at new records.
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting were released last night, and they confirmed that the committee officially began talking about tapering asset purchases.
News headlines today are dominated by oil prices, as negotiations within the OPEC+ group have not come to an agreement yet.
Last week, markets took comfort in the abundant economic data, combining enough growth to justify elevated valuations with elements supporting a continuous stimulus support for now.
The first half of 2021 was one of the best on record for global markets, with the developed markets equity benchmark MSCI World up 13% to take a single illustration.
A flat day for global equities yesterday, though Asian markets were down a percent from mainland China, Hong Kong to Singapore and Japan.
A flat day for global equities yesterday, with small gains from the U.S. and mixed Asian markets.
This morning Asian markets are following last week’s positive performance with Hong Kong equities up over a percent while domestic China indices are up, though more muted.
Global equities gained 2.3% last week, with data signalling continued acceleration in the world economy, as well as optimism over additional fiscal stimulus.
Sometimes, the necessary assumption of capital market efficiency appears quite questionable, especially when looking at short-term price action.
Last week was negative across all asset-classes, following the modest but unexpected shift in guidance from the Federal Reserve.
Global financial markets saw a sea of red last week, with fortunately limited depth.
In the morning session Asian stocks and US futures are extending losses after the Fed’s hawkish surprise.
Stocks slipped, yields and the dollar were little changed, gold slid as investors looked ahead to the Fed meeting.
Traders are undoubtedly preparing themselves for the Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
Markets are pretty quiet this morning, maybe gifting us with a more relaxed, rather than the usual frantic start to the week.
The S&P 500 recorded its third straight weekly gain following some listless sessions in the five days through Friday.
Financial markets keep on struggling to find a clear direction, waiting for the key economic number of the week: today’s US consumer price index.
It looks like Goldilocks: economic growth is strong and globally getting stronger, while job creations in the US are contained, giving visibility on monetary policy.
Last week's avalanche of economic data provided an updated picture on the current backdrop.
Last week was rich in terms of economic data, with an avalanche of monthly leading indicators, and the most awaited US job report for May on Friday.
A positive day yesterday for both risk and safe haven assets as global equities eked out small gains, treasuries rose as did oil and gold.
The to and fro between economic optimism and inflation concerns continues to play out in markets.
This morning Asian equities are trading down after strong returns of 2.5% last week, having outperformed global equities which were up 1.4%.
Global equities continue to gain, up 1.4% last week, with China, India and the UAE contributing to the stronger +2.4% Emerging Market performance.
Wednesday was another gently positive day for global markets, as confidence on western economies’ reopening supported sentiment.
Volatility abated on Tuesday with contained price action in most of the assets we follow.
Last week was all about record volatility in crypto assets, with so far little spill over to conventional asset classes.
Last week was rich in potentially market moving news, especially around inflation and the Fed’s tapering agenda.
Equities fluctuated as investors digested Fed language interpreted to be unexpectedly hawkish in the April’s FOMC minutes.
Asian shares are sliding this morning, following in the footsteps of Wall Street’s lackluster performance the day before.
Asian equity benchmarks are firmly in positive territory this morning, including Japan in spite of some grim economic data.
Stocks are wavering on this Monday morning alongside US equity futures as rising virus cases in parts of the region are weighing on investor sentiment.
The past week was volatile, marked by inflation and cryptocurrency scares, with stocks closing the five days through Friday with minor losses and investors buying the dip, the dollar and gold ending little changed and long-dated Treasury yields still hovering within a holding pattern in spite of growing price pressures.
The year is progressing much as it began. A slightly up day for global equities taking year to date total returns to 9.6%.
Global equities closed down yesterday, falling 0.8%. Asia finished mixed as markets in China and Japan remained closed for holidays, while Europe and US closed lower.
The main event influencing markets yesterday was a slew of manufacturing reports and global equities ended the day slightly higher and in sync with Aprils positive returns.
Markets were weaker across the board on Friday with the S&P 500 little changed on the week and Europe and Asia equities posting modest losses.
First, President Joe Biden, in a formal address to the US Congress, laid out a third stimulus plan.
Stock markets were overall little changed on Wednesday, despite a rise in interest rates.
Last week started on a nervous note but ended reasonably well on financial markets.
From a campaign idea to a project: the Biden administration has confirmed preparing a second economic plan, targeting infrastructure, carbon emissions and inequalities, with an astonishing tentative amount of $3 trillion.
Stocks in Asia are in positive territory as of the time of writing after US stocks snapped a two-day decline to gain almost 1%.
The major stock markets closed in the red on rising global virus cases prompting some profit-taking.
This morning markets in Asia are weak, following yesterday’s retreat of US stocks from all-time highs.
Asian shares are climbing as of the time of writing and US futures paring a drop with the strong recovery and corporate earnings coming into focus.
It was an eventful week on many fronts, with stocks, bonds and commodities registering positive returns.
Markets were relatively quiet on Wednesday. Global stocks added 0.3% on average, led by emerging markets.
Inflation data for March in the US was the key release of yesterday. The CPI report came in higher than the median forecast from economists.
After the records of last week, Monday's session was mildly negative on financial markets.
Last week was positive on all asset classes. Robust economic data supported cyclical assets.
One headline last week illustrates the current situation: the usually pessimistic IMF revised up its world economic outlook for the third time.
Another flat day for global equities, however maintaining the record highs for many markets.
Major global equity indices were largely unchanged yesterday, except for European equities which gained 0.7%.
Global equities were up a percent yesterday with the S&P 500 extending gains into a third session with European equities up too.
A strong start for quarter two for markets last week across regions and sectors after a buoyant Q1.
It has been a good quarter and a good week for equity markets, though beset with severe daily ups and downs.
Here we go again. The unwinding of excessive leverage taken by a large family office, Archegos Capital Management, reverberated across markets raising uncertainty.
Asian stocks are keeping steady this morning, though US equity futures are dipping as investors weigh possible knock-on effects from a wave of unprecedentedly large block trades.s
Risk appetite returned to markets following dovish Fedspeak and Biden’s announcement of aggressive vaccine roll-outs.
Global markets are in a constant adjustment between two opposite forces: the short-term trajectory of the recovery is uncertain, with a resurgence in infections, while the medium-term recovery reignites fears on inflation and rates.
Tuesday was a bad day for global markets, following data showing an unexpected increase in the number of new cases globally.
From a campaign idea to a project: the Biden administration has confirmed preparing a second economic plan, targeting infrastructure, carbon emissions and inequalities, with an astonishing tentative amount of $3 trillion.
Last week was volatile and overall negative for most asset classes, after an update on policies from central banks failed to reverse the rise in bond yields.
Central Banks took center stage last week, with the US Federal Reserve holding their monthly committee on Wednesday.
The so much awaited big Fed day ended with big market moves, following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting where chair Powell basically reiterated the Average Inflation Targeting approach.
Stocks in Asia are showing no clear direction this morning, yesterday were mixed in the United States and put in sub-1% gains in Europe.
Asian stocks are in the green this morning, following the positive session in the United States, where shares reached new all-time highs on optimism about the economic recovery.
In spite of US long-dated yields being at the highs of the year, markets are having a positive start to the week, with US futures and equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia advancing.
Global equities ended the week on a very strong note, with indices of the developed countries clearly outperforming their emerging peers, the US reaching a new record and Europe leading markets higher.
On Wednesday, Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan passed the final vote at the US House of Representatives.
Tuesday was interesting on global markets, with what we could call a “rotation of the rotation”.
Volatility was the name of the game last week, as a stream of good fundamental news pushed interest rates and inflations expectations higher, sending shockwaves across markets.
Bad fundamental news are not what markets dislike the most: uncertainty is. Last week was another example of this well-known behavioural lesson.
After a strong performance from Asia markets yesterday, with China and Hong Kong equity indices up over 2%, this morning major markets in Asia are trading down following the US close yesterday.
Asian markets are up this morning, with China and Hong Kong in the lead after falling around a percent yesterday, in line with global equities which were down half a percent.
This morning Asian equities are slightly negative, after a broad risk on day for markets globally yesterday with global equities up 2%, almost wiping out last week’s 3% fall.
After a week of yield driven market movements, with global equities losing 3% and 10 year Treasury yields rising mid-week to 1.51%, Monday has begun with a stabilization in sovereign bonds, a lower US dollar, signaling somewhat calmer markets with equity indices in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong trading up over a percent.
An intense week of equity volatility with markets yo-yoing between gains and losses.
Nobody really knows whether inflation will rise, but there is no ambiguity that the Fed will remain very accommodative for long.
Tuesday started with some volatility but ended quietly when market participants found comfort in the two awaited items of the day: Jerome Powell’s speech and the US consumer confidence.
Fundamental news are good, combining slowing infections, rising vaccinations, resilient economies and increased policy support.
The key market move of last week was a rise in interest rates, as signs converged for a steady economic recovery from Q2.
The key news of last week converged to set the stage for a strong recovery in the quarters ahead.
The quick rise in global Treasury yields did not go down well with markets and stocks saw one more mixed-to-weak session.
Yesterday was quite eventful, not so much for equities, which closed mixed to little changed depending on geographies and markets, as for bonds.
Stocks closed on a stronger note across the EM countries, in Europe and in Japan, alongside US futures pushing to new highs on occasion of the Presidents Day holiday.
Asian stocks are advancing, alongside US futures ticking higher on this President’s Day holiday, which sees the cash markets closed in the United States.
Stocks closed at new all-time highs both in the United States and in the emerging markets, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.2% and 1.7% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index 2.3% for the week respectively.
Let’s start with the key number released yesterday: +1.4%. This is the US Consumer Price Index year-on-year change as of January, which is of course the main gauge of inflation.
Let’s start with history: yesterday, Hope Probe successfully entered the orbit of Mars at 7.42 PM Dubai time.
As we wrote yesterday, last week was very positive for risk assets, lifting several equity indices to record highs and interest rates at a 2021 high.
January ended with a very negative week, combining surging Covid-19 infections, delays on US fiscal stimulus and the largest de-risking from hedge funds in a decade, under attack by retail investors on the dubbed “meme stocks”.
A strong February so far with most global indices back in the green and global equities up 2.6% year to date.
Another positive day for global equities with a strong risk on rally.
February has on its first trading day seen a global equity rally with lower volatility and technology once again taking leadership.
A volatile week for global equities which ended up 3.5% lower, ending January down by half a percent.
Global financial markets struggled to find a clear direction on Monday, integrating the risk of the US fiscal relief package to be delayed.
Last week was positive across financial markets: all the major asset classes delivered positive returns.
The Asian markets have been rising for a third straight session this morning, led by Japan and South Korea as global growth expectations are positively affected by more forthcoming US stimulus.
In the morning session stocks are mixed in Asia, with Australia headed higher and Japan in losing territory, while US futures are struggling for direction.
In the Asian morning session stocks are steady, with the Nikkei225 leading gains.
In the Asian morning session stocks are generally weaker alongside US futures, in spite of data from China pointing to a continuation of the strong recovery, with the economy back to the pre-pandemic growth rate in the fourth quarter.
Wednesday was relatively quiet on financial markets. Global stocks were little changed in developed regions and slightly down in their emerging peers
Financial markets are looking for a direction, hesitating between strong short-term headwinds and brighter medium term prospects
After a strong first week of 2021, Monday’s session on global markets was negative on pretty much everything.
The Democratic party gaining control of both houses of the US congress was the key reason behind last week’s rise in cyclical assets, with a heightened probability of more fiscal stimulus.
The first week of 2021 was eventful and volatile, but positive for cyclical assets.
Global equities gained close to half a percent yesterday with most major markets up. Major news affecting markets include Democratic control of the US Senate, the 10 year Treasury yield over 1%, oil continuing to gain and Coronavirus spread leading to continued lockdowns.
Global markets saw a broad rally yesterday with most sectors and regions up, barring the Eurozone.
The first day of trade in 2021 for most global markets saw mixed performance from Developed Market equities with U.S. indices lower, though ending off session lows, Eurozone equities positive and the UK rallying.
The first markets to start trading in 2021 are the GCC, with the first trading day yesterday
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