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The world is on lockdown, but markets never pause. What are our investment views and recommendations?
We started 2019 with a constructive stance, and markets didn’t prove us wrong with stellar returns. The same analysis leads to a more nuanced outlook for 2020. As we don’t expect any valuation expansion, returns should be in line with the economic reality: positive, but modest. We overweight Emerging Markets, believe in selectivity, and are prepared for the opportunities and risks of an eventful year.
Entire sectors are devastated, across manufacturing and service activities.
COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption and a worldwide sell-off in financial markets. Impact on UK property will be felt in coming months
There is reasonable hope that the economy will restart in H2, but as markets are already priced for it, the system is vulnerable, and unstable
With the coronavirus outbreak still dominating our lives, stock market volatility looks set to continue.
Be bold like Saudi Arabia, and buy travel companies hammered by the corona outbreak, like cruise liner Carnival? Or stick your dirhams under the mattress?
The difference between speculation and investment is basically diversification and rationality
Select companies with sustainable dividend strategies
Financial Markets are becoming increasingly volatile with deep market gyrations and price swings.
PM Modi to regain power with his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party poised for a comfortable majority
Sukuk (the plural of Sakk, which means certificate in Arabic) are Islamic finance certificates that comply with Islamic sharia investment principles.
It remains a tale of two cities on what the Fed communicates through their macroassessment versus what the market anticipates and prices-in.
As elections are approaching, markets should become more agnostic to the outcome
As elections are approaching, markets should become more agnostic to the outcome
Bonds play a critical role in portfolios, even as interest rates rise and fears of inflation and an equity market downturn have intensified.
Prime Minister Theresa May convinces her Cabinet to agree the final technical terms, but suffers Cabinet resignations and widespread criticism
Video Gaming is a multi-billion industry that is growing exponentially.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is the political and economic alliance of six Middle Eastern countries.
Strong economic growth appears sustainable
The first half of 2018 witnessed the return of volatility and hasn’t rewarded investors with great returns so far.
Inclusion in the MSCI EM Index should be well received by investors
Following a weak Q1 risk assets rebounded in the month of April, supported by robust corporate earnings in the US and in Europe, fading trade war threats and stabilizing business sentiment.
Global debt currently stands at just over USD 233tn “Debt is a form of wealth” – surge in debt should translate into global growth
The S&P500 is 8.1% down peak-to-trough and -0.9% YTD. Yesterday, the Index fell -4.1% and is now trading below its 50-day moving average.
The rally in risk-assets intensified last week, ending a very positive month of May
Western economies are gradually reopening, potentially starting the global rebound this month
Q1 GDP numbers are out and show an historic, synchronized, double-digit collapse
Last week was volatile, between concerns on the COVID19 shock and hopes for the recovery
Exit strategies from social distancing are being discussed everywhere, but really started only in China
Markets rallied last week, as the size and scope of policy responses dramatically increased
The attempt at market stabilization last week was halted by March economic data
Last week saw a sharp rebound across all asset classes, led by developed market equities
The COVID crisis is accelerating on all fronts: healthcare, economy, markets, and policy responses
Markets crashed last week as economic lockdowns intensified globally
March starts with an all-time low for US government bond yields and Oil prices crashing
Markets ended February with one of their worst weekly performances since 2008
The coronavirus continues to spread, dampening optimism about its impact
Several of our year end fair values have been reached last week on DM equities
Markets were positive last week, with hopes on the virus and positive economic signals
Rapidly spreading coronavirus triggers a clear aversion to risk
Optimism dominated markets last week, supported by the trade deal and positive data from China
The year starts under influence of the tensions in the Middle-East
2019 proved to be a fantastic year for financial returns…
Global markets get a double shot of confidence from lower geopolitical risks
Last week was volatile, with mixed messages on trade negotiations…
The trade relations between US and China are dominating market action…
Last week was overall positive for markets, with equities remaining close to record highs
Last week was clearly pro-risk, with equities up and defensive assets down
Benign economic and geopolitical news supported risk appetite last week
Last week was positive for risky assets, as geopolitical tail risks kept on abating
As we hoped, US and China are moving towards a temporary truce on trade
Volatility spiked last week due to weak US data and ever-increasing geopolitical risks
After a buoyant first half, the third quarter saw a return of anxiety on multiple fronts
Last week was eventful, with negative shocks and significant policy support
Wednesday, we reduced Emerging Market debt to Neutral and added to Emerging Market equities
Markets were slightly positive last week, with risk assets showing some optimism
Last week was positive for risk assets, with hopes of de-escalation in the US/China trade tensions
Last week was eventful, volatile, and ended on a negative note as trade tensions escalated (again)
Last week was the third consecutive with negative performance for risky assets
Fed chair Powell fails to live up to market expectations of a long easing cycle
Last week saw many important news: economic data, central bank meetings, and corporate earnings
Last week saw some moderate profit taking in DM Equities, but also an all-time high on the S&P500
2019 is an exceptional year for investors so far, with record performances
Last week’s set of monthly US economic data were good enough to question a rate cut in July
H1-2019 provided investors with very positive returns for every single asset-class
Geopolitical risks are weighing on business sentiment, questioning growth prospects
Last week's economic data confirmed downside risks to global growth
Last week has been all about the re-escalation of the trade conflict between US and China
Last night on Twitter, Mr Trump announced an increase on tariffs on imports from China
Positive economic news over the week, supporting the case for improving global growth
IMF Managing Director calls bottom of global economy either now or soon
The US Fed explicitly guided for no more rate hike in 2019, triggering a rally
All asset classes were higher last week, as economic data pointed to some stabilization
ECB and China were cautious on macro outlook, job creations in the US were soft in February
Fed chairman testified, US/North-Korea held summit, US GDP was released…
Another positive week across asset classes and geographies, lifting indices closer to our year-end fair values
The 2019 rally was extended last week by a dovish Federal Reserve in particular
Another positive week across major asset classes, with a patient Fed and US shutdown ending
2019 shows a very good start for risky assets, despite many issues still unresolved
After a brilliant 2017, 2018 was a year of no returns, and of considerable volatility
Another negative week across the board, with a stronger US Dollar and weaker oil
Another negative week for DM risky assets across the board, however better for EM equities
US Congress is divided with Democrats winning the House, Republicans retaining the Senate
Equity markets sharply corrected last week, dominated by the fear that earnings might be peaking
A slightly negative week, concluding an overall positive quarter
We are increasing our allocation to Emerging Market Equities
Daily CIO Updates
Markets didn’t pay much attention to geopolitical and social tensions last week, with an intensification of the equity rally.
U.S. stocks advanced for a third day on rising optimism that the pandemic’s damage to the economy has peaked.
The main US equity benchmarks closed the session in positive territory, with a marked divergence between the Dow Industrials, +2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite, +0.77%, pointing to value outperforming growth stocks.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed +1.2% at an 11-week high, losing some steam in the final hour of trading.
Markets recorded a broad-based risk-on session yesterday, with global equities reaching 8-week highs and the S&P 500 testing the 3000 level for the first time since March.
There was optimism Wednesday on financial markets with global stocks up c. 1%, led by the US + 1.7% (S&P 500).
U.S. stocks fell after reports circulated that Moderna Inc.’s vaccine study, which was credited in part for Monday’s rally, didn’t produce enough critical data to assess its success.
After Monday’s euphoria on a potential vaccine, markets consolidated yesterday.
In the U.S. markets rallied, the S&P 500 rose 3.2% yesterday, after promising early results for an experimental vaccine sparked speculation economies could snap back quickly.
Euphoria is the right word for yesterday’s session on global markets.
Markets panicked in March, rallied in April, and so far, are hesitating in May.
Last week was volatile and overall slightly negative on financial markets, with global stocks down 2%, commercial real estate tumbling, and Gold outperforming.
The S&P 500 briefly fell below 2,800, a level that has provided support in the past month, after the Fed Chairman said the threat of a lasting downturn could deepen without additional government spending.
U.S. stocks fell after a U.S. health official warned against a premature reopening of the economy and as traders assessed a dire outlook from the Federal Reserve regional chiefs.
Volatility and risk aversion came back on markets on Tuesday, affected by several warnings.
U.S. stocks fluctuated on the day as traders assessed the latest moves around the globe to relax restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Last week’s most spectacular number was the US unemployment rate which reached 14.7% in April.
U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and worsening economic data.
Global stocks fell 0.3% Wednesday, with Emerging Markets slightly positive.
U.S. stocks closed higher despite a late-day swoon as optimism that more economies are moving toward easing their coronavirus lockdowns outweighed cautionary comments from Federal Reserve Officials.
Markets were overall well oriented on Tuesday, as lockdown relaxations are either starting or seriously considered everywhere.
U.S. stocks started the week on a positive note, rallying towards the close after California spoke of reopening the economy.
Like it or not, the US is the world’s leading market and Monday’s session was no exception.
Last week was positive on global markets until Thursday, then May started with stocks retreating on Friday.
With many major economic numbers being released, last week provided more details on the COVID19 impact.
Wednesday was buoyant on financial markets, despite the confirmation of an economic disaster.
After falling last week, U.S. equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.5%) yesterday as talks of additional states beginning to re-open boosted investor sentiment.
Last week was overall negative for risk assets, with global equities and high yield losing -2%.
U.S. stocks rebounded after a two-day slide as optimism about the reopening of the economy increased along with a rebound in oil and Senate approval of additional funding for the PPP.
Markets gave back some recent gains with the S&P 500 declining over 3% yesterday.
U.S. stocks fell from a six-week high, with investors on edge as oil futures plunged to unprecedented levels and with a spate of corporate earnings on tap
Virus Update: Total fiscal and monetary support reaches USD 1.9 trillion across the globe according to Bloomberg;
Virus Update: Federal US Govt encourages teleworking and minimize face-to-face interactions.
Virus Update: California approves USD 500 Mn corona virus package;
Virus Update: Europe which is now the epicentre of the outbreak, faces draconian restrictions including border lockdowns and restriction of movement for citizens
The impact from the coronavirus is weighing on market sentiment and making it more difficult for Asian-based bond issuers with primary bond sales.
The Chinese coronavirus triggered a clear aversion to risk across the financial markets, sending equities sharply lower, especially in Emerging Markets, as well as Oil and cyclical commodities.
FOMC rate decision awaited today with markets believing FED to maintain status-quo
Asian markets opening on a strong footing on the back of strong macroeconomic data
Investors’ worry on headline news on prolonging tariffs by the US on Chinese goods
While investors are positioned for risk-on resulting in positive return for risky assets, the markets still remain sensitive to trade developments.
US markets managed to close higher overnight while the European bourses posted losses.
Treasuries bear steepened for the second consecutive session as long duration bonds led the declines, spurred by a better-than-expected reading on the ISM non-manufacturing gauge.
Risk assets mixed trading this morning across Asia as investor’s focus turn to the FED’s FOMC.
Short-term US treasury bills posted gains amid J.Powell’s announcement that the central bank will resume purchase of Treasuries in order to calm funding markets.
Treasury futures opened higher after Chinese officials were said to be reluctant to commit to a broad trade deal demanded by Washington.
Asian risk assets posting losses across the board on poor economic data releases, particularly on the global manufacturing front.
This week has been dubbed as the most important week for the markets.
This week we have central banks on the podium, and US trade representatives meeting with their Chinese counterparts in Shanghai.
It is all about headlines that are fuelling the ongoing rally across the bond markets.
Emirates NBD’s results for the first half of 2019 have been announced to the public this morning
There seems to be lot of hope that global central bankers would be instrumental in navigating financial asset prices by means of stimulus and rate cuts.
Markets buoyed their appetite for risk assets post better than expected retail sales and industrial production figures out of China.
Markets are anxiously waiting for Powel’s testimony to Congress in order to gauge the possibility for a policy response at the next FOMC.
The markets were caught in a tussle between dovish news related to central bank appointments, monetary policy responses while profit booking and disappointing economic data weighted on the market sentiments.
Asian markets on a mixed tone as investors await an eventful week with key macro-economic data releases and policy announcements.
A weaker overnight session followed by a mixed trading session in Asia this morning across the board ahead of FED's MPC.
A modest overnight trading session in the US with indices broadly posting gains while European indices painting a mixed picture as the market waits for the UK to make its next Brexit move.
Asian markets on a firm footing this week as investor expectations that the FED's policy action would remain muted and dovish.
A mixed opening on risk assets this morning in Asia with China and Japan leading gains on the board.
Asian indices on a mixed footing as investors wait for further clarity on FED's policy actions and balance sheet reduction.
Asian risk assets opened mixed ahead of an eventful week.
The Middle Eastern region successfully raised over $12bn of new debt.
Asian risk assets on a stronger footing across the board while safe-haven assets have underperformed.
Dovish remarks from Fed Chairman, liquidity injection by PBOC are two perfect ingredients for a sentiment boost for the start of the year.
The highly anticipated 80-minute speech by President Xi's have brought in disappointment to many investors globally as no mention on reform roadmap initiatives were brought to light
The big picture for every investor harbingers on inflation. If you get inflation right, the job becomes easy to interpret on the direction for rates, bond yields and across the various asset classes.
Now that the US yield curve has inverted, what's next? Let me elaborate; The shorter end of the curve has inverted, but we still have other observational parts of the yield curve to determine the health of the economic cycle.
The rift between RBI and the Government from October to yesterday's surprise resignation is worrisome.
An eventful week for global financial markets driven by several macrofundamental data and strong technical plays dominated investor sentiment and positioning.
Don't say we didn't tell you, yesterday's carnage on risk assets are likely to weigh on valuations in the coming days as the various narratives by policymakers on monetary policy setting and looming concerns on trade wars takes center stage.
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