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Discover more about banking with usOur 2025 Global Investment Outlook is titled “Winds of Change”, following 2024’s “The Year of Answers”. We indeed believe that markets this year will not be driven by immediate answers to critical questions on the current situation, rather by the medium-term impact of emerging changes. New leaders implement new policies, national and regional agendas take a lead over global topics, with deep potential economic and geopolitical consequences.
Last week was an interesting case in point. The most important economic data, the monthly US CPI report, was a negative surprise as both headline and core inflation came in faster than forecast. Still, after an initial negative reaction, markets recovered. Stocks ended higher in both developed and emerging regions, US Treasury yields slipped, and the dollar weakened. The perspective of reciprocal tariffs being imposed by the US didn’t break the positive trend: many market participants believe that the announcement is the first step of negotiations that will not necessarily deliver a brutal outcome. Finally, there is hope for a resolution of the situation in Ukraine, which helped European stocks.
The future is uncertain, but 2025 starts with sound fundamentals. Inflation is sticky, while growth remains solid, and markets have decided that the worst is now shrouded in uncertainty. This is why we started the year fully invested and decided to remain so in our last committee. Our 3 profiles are already up 2.5%, 3.5% and 4.2% in 2025. Still, we are prepared to be active. Macro uncertainty is higher than market action suggests. We will closely watch US policy moves, international responses, stimulus measures in China and of course AI developments.
View CIO Global Investment Outlook 2025
Cross-asset Update
Trump’s tariffs and the related concerns still dominate the headlines, as the US president recently announced reciprocal tariffs after planning 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports. Despite the risk to growth and inflation - after all levies are like a tax and cause a hike in prices - markets have been quite ebullient. Equities closed well in the green for the week, all the more so the overseas markets, and commodities advanced. As the same time, traders seem to be somewhat cautious, as investor sentiment surveys are leaning bearish, though this contrarian signal could only partially account for the observed price resilience. Another explanation could be that reciprocal tariffs could actually spur a run to the bottom, with countries subject to Trump’s threats preferring to lower their levies to avoid being hit by additional ones. Also, Donald Trump instructed the administration to propose new country-specific levies for the purpose of rebalancing trade relations, a process that would take weeks or months and pose no immediate market risk. Latin America and India would stand to lose most as against Europe and China, though it is difficult to see Europe lower VAT, considered by Washington a form of tax, to accommodate the reciprocal principle. In the end, investors may well have been confused and decided to move on taking the newsflow in their stride.
The past week showed that one of the pillars of US exceptionalism is starting to crack. Retail sales recorded the largest decline in nearly two years, following a downshift in the labor market as per the previous week’s jobs report. The US economy is indeed slowing down, and markets are taking this seriously. The dollar has been weakening and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note on Friday closed below 4.5%. There is a case to be made that Fed’s policy could be too tight, as indicated by rising delinquencies and the more difficult conditions in the housing market. The Fed is actually in a predicament, having to manage lingering inflationary pressures that run counter the need for lower rates. With tariffs drawing closer but not yet implemented, the status quo will prevail for a while, until their depressing effect on growth one day will force the Fed into action, hoping that by that time is not going to be too late.
Gold seems unstoppable and recorded yet again a new all-time high. It reached our year-end fair value of $2,900/oz for 2025 well ahead of time, rising almost in a straight line from its December lows. Though technically odds of a pullback are rising, we do not see the longer-term catalysts in jeopardy. Central banks have continued to buy, and excess debt in the West remains an issue leading to currency debasement. Weakness would still be a buying opportunity.
Fixed Income Update
We had a host of key data releases last week. US consumer prices rose more than expected in January, triggering a bear steepening in the US Treasury yield curve. Both Headline and Core numbers surprised on the upside at 3% and 3.3% respectively. Core PPI numbers came in line with expectations. However, Retail Sales data released last Friday was awful declining 0.9% vs an estimate of 0.2% decrease. This triggered a rally in the US Treasury yields as the longer-dated yields dropped 5 to 7 bps. Across the Atlantic, UK GDP grew by only 0.1% in Q4 2024 boosted by an increase in Government Spending of +0.8%. Eurozone Industrial Production was negative. This should support lower UK Gilts. Increased defense spending in Europe should push European yields up.
Chairman Powell in his Senate testimony reiterated the main message from two weeks ago, when the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged after 1 percentage point of cumulative cuts late last year. He said that after those actions, policy is “significantly less restrictive,” and policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry to adjust” rates further at this point. He also gave ammunition to fiscal hawks by telling lawmakers there’s "no time like the present" to start putting the US budget onto a sustainable path.
Credit markets continue unbridled optimism with spreads tight despite policy uncertainties. Though tariffs are now viewed more as rhetoric than reality, a growth shock could widen spreads. Banks should outperform non-financials as rates remain high providing tailwinds to earnings. Last week IG credit was the best performer as both yields went down and spreads compressed. HY spreads are near the tightest level for the year and lead the YTD returns chart. January saw a welcome moderation with just three and four defaults for US loan and bond issuers, respectively, according to a GS report. Fund flows remain strong as none of the USD credit categories have experienced net outflows for any week so far this year according to the same report.
The GCC region continues to see a strong pace of primary issuances, with year-to-date (YTD) issuances crossing $28 billion, out of which 80% of the issuances were from Saudi Arabia. From the KSA, we have seen inaugural issuances from Saudi Arabian Mining company (65.2% owned by PIF) issuing a 5-year and 10-year sukuk. Additionally, Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (rated A1/A-/A+ by M/S/F and wholly owned by PIF) issued announcement for its inaugural 3 and 10-year sukuk. While from UAE, Emirates NBD announced mandate for a perpetual non-callable for 6-year AT1 bond. Sharjah Islamic Bank (rated -/A-/BBB+ by M/S/F) announced mandate for its 5-year senior unsecured sukuk and Damac (rated Ba2/BB/- by M/S/F ) for its 3.5-year senior unsecured sukuk.
Equity Update
Global equities climbed for most of the week, with strong earnings and renewed optimism in China keeping momentum intact. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, closing in on another record, while Europe rose 1.8%, extending its rally. China was the standout, surging 7.3% as tech stocks led the biggest rebound in months. But India moved sharply in the other direction, with stocks falling 6.2% as capital rotated out of the market at the fastest pace in years. Japan slipped 0.9%, pressured by a stronger yen that weighed on exporters. US markets are closed Monday for Presidents' Day, setting up a quieter start to the week before trading resumes.
Earnings remained a major driver. With 77% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q4 results, both earnings and revenue beats continued to run above historical averages. Tech and consumer stocks stood out, Nvidia extended its gains and Apple drew attention ahead of the launch of new products which are expected to be a key driver of growth. A major product battle is also taking shape as Apple and Meta are planning to develop humanoid robots, setting up a competition that could define the next decade of consumer technology. Meta is focusing on building a software platform that other manufacturers can use, while Apple is working on a more tightly integrated product that combines hardware and software under its control. These efforts remain in their early stages, they are already drawing comparisons to previous tech battles over smartphones and mixed reality.
Europe gained 1.8%, extending its streak of weekly advances. Energy, industrials, and financials led the gains, with additional support coming from hopes of progress in Ukraine peace talks. Some signs of overheating emerged, as valuations in key sectors expanded.
China’s sudden resurgence shifted global flows. After months of underperformance, Chinese equities roared back, gaining $1.3 trillion in market value. The rally was fueled by a surge in AI-linked stocks after DeepSeek’s latest breakthrough positioned the country as a key player in the global AI race. Tech names dominated, with Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent jumping sharply as funds that had been avoiding the market rushed back in. Hopes for additional government stimulus and a more supportive stance on private business added to the momentum. Hedge funds increased their exposure at the fastest pace in months, marking a significant shift in sentiment. While capital flowed into China, India saw a sharp reversal. Foreign funds pulled out nearly $12 billion from Indian equities since the start of the year, with outflows accelerating in February. The rapid selling was driven by concerns over slowing growth, expensive valuations, and stronger opportunities in other markets. For years, India had been the preferred market in Asia, benefiting from global investment inflows. That trend appears to be shifting in the short term, with markets now reconsidering the balance between growth and risk. Domestic institutional investors have stepped in to absorb some of the selling pressure, but the sudden reversal has left markets on edge.
Japan lagged, with stocks falling 0.9% as the yen strengthened, dragging down exporters. Sony was a bright spot, rising 9% after raising its earnings outlook, while the broader market faced some pressure. The country also saw its biggest IPO since 2018, as JX Advanced Metals raised $3 billion, reinforcing demand for semiconductor-linked stocks.
Maurice Gravier Chief Investment Officer , [email protected]
Anita Gupta Head of Equity Strategy , [email protected]
Satyajit Singh Fixed Income Analyst , [email protected]
Giorgio Borelli Head of Asset Allocation , [email protected]
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