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Discover more about banking with usAfter the massive rebound of everything of 2023, our expectation for 2024 was for overall modest positive returns, with divergence and volatility. We were a bit too cautious: actual returns for our three profiles, at respectively +5%, +10% and +13%, were a bit better. It came mostly from a massive appreciation of gold, and from another great year for US stocks, lifted by continuous economic surprises and by the spectacular gains of the Magnificent 7 stocks.
For the rest, volatility, as expected, was elevated with many gyrations in market expectations for the Fed, as well as many political events. The diametrically opposed fates of government bonds and stocks also validated our call for differentiated behaviours.
We start 2025 with a clear picture of the current state of the global economy, confirmed by December PMI releases: activity in services remains globally solid, with a slight pick-up in both Europe and Japan, while the US and India remain the fastest growing countries of their respective developed and emerging groups.
This good starting point doesn’t help much for the year ahead. While 2024 was all about finding answers to immediate questions on the current state of the world, we believe that 2025 will be about the medium-term consequences of emerging policy changes. It’s all about the new US administration which takes office in two weeks. The platform is disruptive, with all political levers to implement it. But priorities (growth, geopolitics, fiscal discipline, inflation?) and details are unknown. Both will shape expectations and move markets, without a doubt. We start the year close to our strategic positioning and will issue our 2025 Outlook in the coming weeks. Happy new year!
Cross-asset Update
Last year was a stellar one for equity investors with 20% back-to-back gains in the US. The solid bull market for stocks was supported by continued economic growth, falling inflation, and a global easing cycle led by the Fed. Mega-cap tech stocks led once more the way, though market participation became broader across sizes and sectors. Treasuries experienced another volatile year, with longer-dated yields rising despite Fed rate cuts, and US cash yet again outperforming IG bonds. US exceptionalism dominated as underwhelming Chinese stimulus failed to yet impact growth, while activity in the euro area remained anaemic. Gold’s +27% topped asset class returns, amidst widespread geopolitical tensions and unrelenting central bank purchases. Market participants are now looking to 2025 with some trepidation, as historically very strong years have been followed by a rise in volatility and less ebullient gains. Some questions remain key to next year’s outlook. How will Trump’s policies impact the outlook? Will the disinflation process continue? Will both stimulus and less demanding valuations in China and Europe trigger outperformance of non-US markets? Could US growth start to show some cracks? Will manufacturing activity expand again following a contraction phase lasting throughout most of the last two years? Our take on these relevant topics will be provided in the Outlook 2025 publication to be released shortly.
We are starting 2025 looking ahead to a growing number of challenges, hence investors are recommended to stick to diversified portfolios to lessen the impact of asset volatility. With most markets rich, opportunities will have to be looked for within asset classes, rather than via pure beta exposure.
Shifting now to the longer term, we would like to underscore that our positive stance on gold is confirmed, as disruptive change usually comes alongside asset volatility and growing uncertainty, best hedged via an asset class least correlated to the others. We see gold outperform primarily as Western governments will need to tolerate higher price pressures in order to inflate debt levels away. De-dollarisation, the political will of the so-called “Global South” to move away from a dollar-based payment system, is there to stay, yet quite a slow-moving variable. The flip side of gold strength is a weakening of the dollar, necessary to find a source of US growth tied to the real economy, rather than to stimulus or financial engineering. A historical precedent in this respect is offered by the so-called Plaza Accord in 1985, when the United States in concert with the major countries successfully engineered a devaluation of the global reserve currency. The dollar collapsed by more than 40% in three years, and a long period of strong US growth followed.
Fixed Income Update
2024 was an unusual year in many senses with scant historical parallels. The Fed started its long-awaited rate cut cycle in September. However, the US exceptionalism continues. The disinflation story seems to have stalled. For only the fourth time in history the long-end of the curve increased in a rate cut cycle. The 30-year yields rose by 75 basis points in 2024, even as 1-year yields fell by 63 basis points resulting in a rare bear steepening of the 30/1-year curve. Since the early 1960s, there have only been four other years where long yields have risen during a period of easing short rates. This means the long-end is being influenced more by inflation/growth dynamics rather than monetary policy. However, being hawkish from current levels has its own risks and hence we change our stance to long-duration at current levels of 10-year yields.
Spreads remain tight across the rating spectrum. Investors buy IG bonds for yields and not spreads. With yield remaining above 5%, the demand for IG credit from Real money players should remain similar to 2024 whereas according to analyst estimates the supply could be down by 25% providing technical support to the already tight spreads. According to S&P, the 4.8% distress ratio in HY bonds points to a 2.5% default rate by next September which is materially lower than the 4.7% average default rate observed in the last 30 years. Strong balance sheets and elevated yields would offset poor valuations with spreads at 7th percentile. However, the net Supply would increase with supportive capital markets. 36% of HY bonds maturing by FY26 belong to issuers rated B3 or lower. Higher issuance combined with lower trend growth will lead to a slight widening of spreads.
EM Debt headwinds include a strong dollar, tariff wars and tight valuations. China is in the cross hairs of Trump’s tariff policy. Countries are expected to counter this with a combination of fiscal stimulus, monetary policy changes and/or FX intervention. China’s recent change after 11 years to move to “moderately loose” policy is an example of this. If Trump’s tariff policies are pragmatic we may see strong growth in some the EM countries. Moreover, we don’t expect large scale defaults in 2025 from EM sovereigns while robust balance sheets in EM Corps should keep spreads range bound.
GCC debt supply should remain inline with 2024 with and around $47 Bn of bonds maturing in 2025. KSA is again expected to lead the volumes. However, demand should remain strong as local investors continue to focus on all in yields. The spreads would depend significantly on oil prices. We expect spreads to widen from the current levels but remain contained if oil prices stay above $60.
Equity Update
Neutral DM: OW U.S./Japan, Neutral UK, UW Eurozone
Neutral EM: OW India/UAE, Neutral China, UW others.
2024 saw global equity returns that surpassed beginning of year expectations, with the confluence of monetary easing from several DM Central banks, lower inflation, strong economic growth in the US, India and UAE, with complementary robust earnings growth and the outperformance of everything AI. Geopolitical concerns diminished and election outcomes were received favourably. Government sovereign yields remain elevated but have not impacted the performance of growth sectors. Equity returns were led by the MAG7 Group and the technology sector (semis, data centres), as global industry is expected to benefit from AI driven productivity gains. The MSCI ACWI saw two pullbacks in April (5%) and August (8%), still ended the year 17.5% higher. Other notable returns: MAG7 +60%, Nasdaq +30%, S&P 500 +25%. In emerging markets, the Dubai Index led +34%. On sectors financials surprised, with gains close to the tech sector not affected by rate cuts, a reflection of global economic strength and consumer spend.
We are reasonably constructive for equities in 2025 as revenue/earnings/margins growth looks healthy with a broadening away from tech specially in the US. Multiples are elevated for the US and India,. PMI’s remain robust and recession fears are at a low probability. 2025 is all about earnings growth and expect c.10% upside for equities with valuation multiples expected to stay at current levels. Growth will stay in focus: AI (positive but lower returns), the US, UAE and India. Higher valuation multiples necessitate continued screening for quality.
We are neutral both developed and emerging markets, with regional preferences. Overweight the US (above average earnings growth and accommodative monetary policy) and continues to dominate global equities at 65% of the MSCI ACWI. This in turn leads to tech dominance in global indices as tech and comm services is 40% of the S&P 500. This then brings in the Mag7 group which are 34% of the S&P 500, 40% of 2024 returns, and though only 22% of earnings triple the earnings growth of the S&P500. We expect larger multinationals and governments to continue investing in data centers, high end semi processors, development of large language models. Growth stocks outpaced Value stocks across all market-cap tiers in 2024 and Q4. Returns may be volatile with the impact of new policy initiatives, the path of interest rates and geopolitical dynamics. In the Eurozone current valuations, below long-term averages, highlight opportunities in sectors like luxury goods and healthcare.
In emerging markets, we like India for growth and the UAE for its high dividend yielding stocks. India’s structural growth story remains intact, (a little slower). We are neutral China as policy uncertainty, especially around tariffs and trade restrictions, continues to influence China’s outlook. Valuations remain attractive, and fiscal stimulus could bolster domestic demand.
Maurice Gravier Chief Investment Officer , [email protected]
Anita Gupta Head of Equity Strategy , [email protected]
Satyajit Singh Fixed Income Analyst , [email protected]
Giorgio Borelli Head of Asset Allocation , [email protected]
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