Markets found a new reason to rally

11 November 2025
Markets found a new reason to rally

Markets found a new reason to rally, this time offered by the likely end of the longest US government shutdown in history that would be restoring normalcy in the economy. Stocks gained and bitcoin rebounded as the Senate advanced a plan to bring the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats to an end. A group of moderate Democrats broke with their party leaders and voted to support a deal. But indeed, in the greater scheme of things it is the broader economy and liquidity that matter, and we all knew that the stalemate between opposing factions would eventually end. The reason why markets can keep on rallying is that the global economy is growing at an annualized rate that is shy of 3% in October according to the latest released business confidence surveys and that liquidity as measured by M1 money supply is also rising across the major economic areas - the US, the euro area, UK, Japan and China. The Goldilocks scenario is still blessing markets and with a strong twist of AI hype to it everybody keeps on being happy about. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, while a gauge of Magnificent 7 megacaps climbed 2.8%. Stocks were led higher by IT and Communication Services, while Treasuries edged lower. The shorter end of the curve cheapened slightly more with the yield on the 2-year note ending 3bps higher as the end of the shutdown in sight would be warranting a more sanguine outlook in the immediate future. It will take weeks for the market to receive all the data delayed since the start of the shutdown with the September employment report likely to be the first one to go for print. Some private data will continue to remain of heightened relevance both for the Fed and investors. The dollar ended little changed holding its ground against the major peers, while gold rose 2.8%. Brent crude traded in a holding pattern.

While investors continue to be enthusiastic about the wonders of AI, all the more in their portfolios, youngsters can be rather inclined to resent its ever-pervasive presence, considering that young US adult unemployment as share of all unemployment is now at its historical peak. If AI can most easily displace junior jobs, at the same time making stock investors richer, it seems to be just one more tool apt at increasing wealth inequality, of which indeed we already have had enough of.

Yesterday, we had conflicting declarations from Fed officials Daly and Musalem. The former advocated for lower Fed rates, the latter for more caution on further cuts. We think the market knows better and can discriminate between who’s right. Historically, whenever the 2-year yield traded consistently below the Fed funds rate a harsh slowdown followed due to excessively tight policy and the Fed was forced to cut. Morale: the Treasury market correctly anticipates what the Fed should be doing. And this time the yield on the 2-year note has consistently traded below the funds rate since October 2023. Daly seems to be right. Why hesitate?

Markets this morning:

In the Asian session optimism about the possible end of the record-long US government shutdown was offset by a market retreat as early gains in China shares turned into losses with mainland losing as much as 0.8%, while the MSCI regional gauge was little changed. The risk-on mood extended to commodities, in particular to industrial metals like copper and aluminum, with a broad gauge reaching the highest levels since August 2022. The Dollar Index was little changed, while gold and bitcoin extended gains. Elsewhere, Japanese PM Takaichi said she would use her first stimulus package to jump-start the economy with investments in key industries. Yesterday Donald Trump floated the idea of paying $2,000 tariff “dividend” to US citizens, that added to the general euphoria. On the earnings front neocloud company CoreWeave, that rents out access to powerful chips, lowered its annual revenue forecast after suffering a delay fulfilling a customer contract. The company, highly indebted and loss making, missed on its core operating margin. It was about 6% lower in late-hour trading.

Upcoming key events/data:

While the week remains data poor due to the government shutdown, today we have the release of the NFIB Business Optimism Index, providing insight into small-business-owner sentiment. In the euro area focus will be on the ZEW survey, a gauge of the outlook that investment experts see six months ahead.

Have a great day.

Written by:
  • CIO Office

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