Markets lost some momentum yesterday

03 April 2026

Markets lost some momentum yesterday, but the session was more complicated than the headline numbers first suggest. Global equities finished softer overall with MSCI ACWI down 0.4%, developed markets off 0.2% and emerging markets down 1.6%, yet by the close the US had managed to claw its way back into positive territory with the S&P 500 up 0.1% after swinging from a 1.5% drop earlier in the day. Europe closed down 0.2%, China fell 0.9%, TOPIX lost 1.6% and Dubai slipped 0.6%. What drove everything was oil, Brent jumping 7.8% to $109 and briefly trading even higher intraday, while the dollar firmed 0.3% and the 10 year Treasury yield edged down just one basis point to 4.30%. Gold fell 1.7% to $4,676, so this was not a classic safe haven move across the board, it was really a market trying to work out whether the speech from Trump meant escalation, or just another round of pressure before a deal.

That is where most of the confusion came from. Trump said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks and offered no credible plan for reopening Hormuz, which initially sent risk assets sharply lower because markets had been hoping for something much more concrete on de-escalation. Oil reacted immediately, with WTI surging as much as 12% and the prompt spread blowing out to record levels, which tells you just how unprepared the market was for a more hawkish tone. Diesel was even stronger than crude, with Europe’s benchmark moving above $200 a barrel for the first time since 2022, which matters because it says the inflation story is not just about headline crude anymore, it is feeding more directly into refined products and transport costs. What changed the tone later in the session was a report that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through Hormuz, which was enough to trigger a partial reversal in equities because it gave markets something concrete to latch onto, even if it still implies tolls, tighter control and anything but a clean reopening.

That late turnaround was most visible in the US, where dip buying showed up again and helped the S&P finish slightly positive, ending the day at 0.1% up and capping a 3.4% weekly gain, the best since late November after five straight losing weeks. It was not a clean risk-on session though. The VIX was still around 24, Tesla dragged after another weak quarter, and the whole move felt reactive rather than confident. The message from the US market was basically that traders are still willing to buy sharp pullbacks, but only because every headline now causes exaggerated swings in both directions. The broader point remains the same, until there is an actual agreement on how Hormuz gets reopened, the market is stuck in this loop where oil drives sentiment and equities remain vulnerable to every geopolitical twist.

The US macro data was firmer than the broader mood in markets might suggest. Initial jobless claims fell to 202,000, one of the lowest readings in roughly two years, which keeps the low-fire part of the labour market story intact. The problem is that the hiring side still looks much less convincing, and that came through in other labour indicators. Challenger reported that job-cut announcements rose 25% in March from the previous month, and in tech specifically the quarter has been ugly, with more than 52,000 announced cuts and a growing share tied directly to AI-related restructuring. So you still have an economy where layoffs remain low in aggregate, but there is very clear churn under the surface, especially in sectors trying to redirect spending toward AI infrastructure and automation. That is why the labour story still feels mixed rather than cleanly strong.

In corporate news, Tesla’s deliveries missed again at 358,023 units for the first quarter, well below expectations and one of its weakest quarters in years, which is why the stock remained under pressure even as the broader market stabilised. In AI, the story is becoming bigger and more competitive by the day. Microsoft is now openly saying it wants to build frontier-scale in-house AI models by 2027, which is a major signal that it wants less dependence on OpenAI and Anthropic over time. On top of that, it announced a four-year, $10 billion AI investment plan in Japan, including infrastructure, cybersecurity and training one million AI engineers by 2029, which is another reminder that the AI buildout is still accelerating globally even while energy costs are rising and power availability becomes a bigger bottleneck. SpaceX is also pushing the speculative side of the market further, with its IPO target valuation now reportedly moving above $2 trillion, which would make it one of the largest companies in the world almost immediately and the biggest listing ever by a huge margin. So there is this strange contrast where parts of the macro backdrop are getting tougher, but the appetite for very large AI and space-related capital stories is still massive.

Europe had a messy session but the regional picture actually says a lot. The MSCI Europe index closed down 0.2% after being as much as 1.6% lower, so it did a decent job of clawing back losses once the Hormuz protocol headlines came through. For the week it still ended up 3.7%, its best week in almost a year, but the internal composition mattered much more than the index level. Energy and utilities held up well, with Shell and BP among the main supports, while airlines and banks were much weaker, because higher-for-longer fuel costs hit travel immediately and tighter financial conditions remain a problem for cyclicals.

So put together, yesterday was really a session where markets tried to decide whether the conflict is moving toward a managed reopening of Hormuz or toward a longer, more inflationary disruption, and by the end there was still no definitive answer. The global numbers ended slightly weaker because oil remains the dominant driver, but the intraday reversal in the US and Europe tells you markets are desperate for any operational sign that the strait may function again, even under tighter controls. The problem is that crude at $109, diesel above $200, weak transport names, rising tech layoffs and a still-fragile growth backdrop all say the damage from this shock is already feeding through. That is why the market keeps bouncing and stumbling in the same session, because every hopeful headline helps for a few hours, but the underlying pressure has not gone away.

Markets this morning:

Today morning, the tone is a bit steadier, but it still feels fragile rather than convincing. Asian equities are trying to bounce at the end of what has been another highly volatile week, helped by the fact that oil has eased off its highs after reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through Hormuz, which gave markets at least some operational sign to work with. Japan is firmer and South Korea is leading gains, while China is lagging again, and that split makes sense because this is still more a liquidity and positioning rebound than a clean shift in conviction. The bigger issue has not changed, markets are still trading around whether oil can partially normalize, not whether the conflict is fully resolved. Payrolls are also in focus later today, even with US markets shut for the holiday, so there is still plenty of event risk in the background. The mood is better than it was immediately after Trump’s speech, but heading into the weekend there is still a lot of caution because any further escalation could send oil straight back up and reverse the improvement just as quickly.

Upcoming key events/data:

Looking ahead key events and data today include the US jobs report, where payroll growth around 55,000 is expected, alongside unemployment and services activity, as well as China services PMIs and French industrial production, which should give a clearer read on how growth is holding up as energy pressures build.

Written by:

CIO Office

Disclaimer

This document is prepared by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) (“the Bank” or “Emirates NBD”), a public joint stock company incorporated in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and licensed to provide various financial services including promotion, financial consultation, securities portfolio management, managing investments of investment funds, etc. Emirates NBD is regulated supervised and controlled by the Central Bank of the UAE (“Central Bank”) and the Securities and Commodities Authority of the UAE (“SCA”), having its head office at Baniyas Road, Deira, PO Box 777, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. This document may be distributed and/or made available by the Bank and its affiliates and subsidiaries, including Emirates NBD Capital KSA CJSC (“ENBD Capital”) (through its website, its branches or through any other modes, whether electronically or otherwise).

Emirates NBD and its affiliates, subsidiaries and group entities, including its shareholders, directors, officers, employees and agents are collectively referred to Emirates NBD Group.

This publication is prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Data/information provided in this publication are intended solely for illustrative purposes for the general information or its recipients, irrespective of their customer classification as an Ordinary Investor or Professional Investor under the SCA Regulations.

Any person (hereinafter referred to as “you”, “your”) who has received this document or have access to this document shall acknowledge and agree to the following terms.

Reliance

This publication may include data/information taken from stock exchanges or other third-party sources from around the world, which Emirates NBD reasonably believes to be reliable, fair and not misleading, but which have not been independently verified. The provision of certain data/information in this publication may be subject to the terms and conditions of other agreements to which Emirates NBD is a party. Opinions, estimates and expressions of judgment are those of the writer and are subject to change without notice. Emirates NBD or any member of Emirates NBD Group makes no representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability for the sequence, accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information or opinions contained in this publication. Nothing contained in this publication shall be construed as an assurance by Emirates NBD that you may rely upon or act on any information or data provided herein, without further independent verification of the same by you.

The contents of this document are prepared as of a particular date and time and will not reflect subsequent changes in the market or changes in any other factors, including those relevant to the determination of whether a particular investment activity is advisable. Emirates NBD does not undertake any obligation to issue any further publications or update the contents of this document. Emirates NBD may also, at its sole discretion, update or change the contents herein without notice. Emirates NBD or any member of Emirates NBD Group does not accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage caused by any act or omission by you as a result of the information contained in this publication (including by negligence).

References to any financial instrument or investment product in this document are not intended to imply that an actual trading market exists for such instrument or product. Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. The information and opinions contained in this publication is provided for informational purposes only and have not been prepared with any regard to the objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person, wherever situated. If you wish to rely on or use the information contained in this publication, you should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products mentioned herein are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. You should also independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate professional advisers or experts.

Confidentiality

This publication may be provided to you upon request (and not for distribution to the general public), on a confidential basis for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes or to be passed on or disclosed to any other person and/or to any jurisdiction that would render the distribution illegal.

Solicitation

None of the content in this publication constitutes a solicitation, offer, recommendation or opinion by Emirates NBD to buy, sell or trade in any security or to avail of any service in any jurisdiction. This document is not intended to serve as authoritative legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice regarding any security or investment, including the profitability or suitability thereof and further does not provide any fiduciary or financial advice. This document should also not be used in substitution for the exercise of the prospective investor’s judgment.

Third Party

This publication is not intended for use by, or distribution to, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such use or distribution would be contrary to law or regulation. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this publication to investigate and observe all applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdiction. This publication may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without the express consent of Emirates NBD or its affiliates, subsidiaries or group entities distributing this document. You should not use the data in this publication in any way to improve the quality of any data sold or contributed by you to any third party.

Liability

Notwithstanding anything to the contrary set forth herein, Emirates NBD, its suppliers, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives, successors, assigns, affiliates or subsidiaries shall not, directly or indirectly, be liable, in any way, to you or any other person for any: (a) inaccuracies or errors in or omissions from this publication including, but not limited to, quotes and financial data; or (b) loss or damage arising from the use of this publication, including, but not limited to any investment decision occasioned thereby. Under no circumstances, including but not limited to negligence, shall Emirates NBD, its suppliers, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives, successors, assigns, affiliates or subsidiaries be liable to you for direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, punitive, or exemplary damages even if Emirates NBD has been advised specifically of the possibility of such damages, arising from the use of this publication, including but not limited to, loss of revenue, opportunity, or anticipated profits or lost business.

This publication does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of person who receive it. The appropriateness of an investment activity or strategy will depend on the person’s individual circumstances and objectives and these activities may not be suitable for all persons. In addition, before entering into any transaction, prospective investors should: (i) ensure that they fully understand the potential risks and rewards of that transaction; (ii) determine independently whether that transaction is appropriate given an investor’s investment objectives, experience, financial and operational resources, and other relevant circumstances; (iii) understand that any rates of tax and zakat or any relief in relation thereto, as may be referred to in this publication may be subject to change over time; (iv) consult their advisers on the legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting implications of the investment; (v) understand the nature of the investment and the related contract (and contractual relationship) including, without limitation, the nature and extent of their exposure to risk; and (vi) understand any regulatory requirements and restrictions applicable to the prospective investor.

Where this publication provides any information about Shariah compliant products, the Bank will not have engaged a Shariah board (or similar body) to determine independently whether or not such products are compliant with Shariah principles. The Bank accepts no liability with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of any such determination or guidance by any Shariah board that has certified or otherwise approved such products as Shariah compliant. Nothing contained in this publication shall be construed as a recommendation by the Bank to invest in such product. In deciding whether to invest in Shariah compliant products, you should satisfy yourself that investing in such products will not contravene Shariah principles. You should consult your own Shariah advisors as to whether investing in such products is compliant or not with Shariah principles.

Forward Looking

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and should not be seen as an indication of future performance of any investment activity. The information contained in this publication does not purport to contain all matters relevant to any particular investment or financial instrument and all statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate. Certain matters in this publication about the future performance of Emirates NBD or members of its group (the Group), including without limitation, future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all other statements that are not purely historical, constitute “forward-looking statements”. Such forward-looking statements are based on current expectations or beliefs, as well as assumptions about future events, made from information currently available. Forward-looking statements often use words such as “anticipate”, “target”, “expect”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “goal”, “seek”, “believe”, “will”, “may”, “should”, “would”, “could” or other words of similar meaning. Reliance should not be placed on any such statements in making an investment decision, as forward-looking statements, by their nature, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, as well as the Group’s plans and objectives, to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized.

Risk

Data included in this publication may rely on models that do not reflect or take into account all potentially significant factors such as market risk, liquidity risk, and credit risk. Emirates NBD may use different models, make valuation adjustments, or use different methodologies when determining prices at which Emirates NBD is willing to trade financial instruments and/or when valuing its own inventory positions for its books and records. The use of this publication is at the sole risk of the investor and this publication, and anything contained herein, is provided "as is" and "as available." Emirates NBD makes no warranty of any kind, express or implied, as to this publication, including, but not limited to, merchantability, non-infringement, title, or fitness for a particular purpose or use.

Investment in financial instruments involves risks and returns may vary. The value of investment products mentioned in this document may neither be capital protected nor guaranteed and the value of the investment product and the income derived therefrom can fall as well as rise and an investor may lose the principal amount invested. Investment products are subject to several risks factors, including without limitation, market risk, high volatility, credit and default risk, illiquidity, currency risk and interest rate risk. It should be noted that the value, price or income of securities denominated in a foreign currency may be adversely affected by changes in the currency rates. It may be difficult for the investor to sell or realise the security and to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risks to which it is exposed. Furthermore, the investor will not have the right to cancel a subscription for securities once such subscription has been made. Prospective investors are hereby informed that the applicable regulations in certain jurisdictions may place certain restrictions on secondary market activities with respect to securities.

Before making an investment, investors should consult their advisers on the legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting implications of the investment. In receiving this publication, the investor acknowledges it is fully aware that there are risks associated with investment activities. Moreover, the responsibility to obtain and carefully read and understand the content of documents relating to any investment activity described in this publication and to seek separate, independent financial advice if required to assess whether a particular investment activity described herein is suitable, lies exclusively with the investor.

Intellectual property

This publication has been developed, compiled, prepared, revised, selected, and arranged by Emirates NBD and others (including certain other information sources) through the application of methods and standards of judgment developed and applied through the expenditure of substantial time, effort, and money and constitutes valuable intellectual property of Emirates NBD and such others. All present and future rights in and to trade secrets, patents, copyrights, trademarks, service marks, know-how, and other proprietary rights of any type under the laws of any governmental authority, domestic or foreign, shall, as between the investor and Emirates NBD, at all times be and remain the sole and exclusive property of Emirates NBD and/or other lawful parties.

Except as specifically permitted in writing, you should not copy or make any use of the content of this publication or any portion thereof or publish, circulate, reproduce, distribute or offer this publication for sale in whole or in part to any other person over any medium including but not limited to over-the-air television or radio broadcast, a computer network or hyperlink framing on the internet or construct a database of any kind. Except as specifically permitted in writing, you shall not use the intellectual property rights connected with this publication, or the names of any individual participant in, or contributor to, the content of this publication, or any variations or derivatives thereof, for any purpose. This publication is intended solely for non-commercial use and benefit, and not for resale or other transfer or disposition to, or use by or for the benefit of, any other person or entity. By accepting this publication, you agree not to use, transfer, distribute, copy, reproduce, publish, display, modify, create, or dispose of any information contained in this publication in any manner that could compete with the business interests of Emirates NBD. Furthermore, you should not use any of the trademarks, trade names, service marks, copyrights, or logos of Emirates NBD or its subsidiaries in any manner which creates the impression that such items belong to or are associated with you, except as otherwise provided with Emirates NBD’s prior written consent. You shall have no ownership rights in and to any of such items.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT UNITED KINGDOM

This publication was prepared by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) in the United Arab Emirates. It has been issued and approved for distribution to clients by the London branch of Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority in the UK. Some investments and services are not available to clients of the London Branch. Any services provided by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) outside the UK will not be regulated by the FCA and you will not receive all the protections afforded to retail customers under the FCA regime, such as the Financial Ombudsman Service and the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect any of the returns or income set out within this publication.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT SINGAPORE

This publication was prepared by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) in the United Arab Emirates. It has been issued and approved for distribution to clients by the Singapore branch of Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) which is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and subject to applicable laws (including the Financial Advisers Act (FAA) and the Securities and Futures Act (SFA). Any services provided by Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C) outside Singapore will not be regulated by the MAS or subject to the provisions of the FAA and/or SFA, and you will not receive all the protections afforded to retail customers under the FAA and/or SFA. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect any of the returns or income set out within this publication. Please contact your Relationship Manager for further details or for clarification of the contents, where appropriate. For contact information, please visit www.emiratesnbd.com.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT EMIRATES NBD CAPITAL KSA CJSC

Emirates NBD Capital KSA CJSC (“ENBD Capital”), whose registered office is at P.O. Box 341777, Riyadh 11333, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a Saudi closed joint stock company licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority (“CMA”) under License number 37-07086 dated 29/08/2007G (corresponding to 16/08/1428H) to deliver a full range of quality investment products and related support services to individuals and institutions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. ENBD Capital is subject to Capital Market Law, and Implementing Regulations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

ENBD Capital’s contact details are T +966 (11) 299 3900 and F +966 (11) 299 3955.

This document may not be distributed in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia except to such persons as are permitted under the Investment Funds Regulations issued by the Capital Market Authority.

The Capital Market Authority does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this document, and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from, or incurred in reliance upon, any part of this document. Prospective subscribers of the securities offered hereby should conduct their own due diligence on the accuracy of the information relating to the securities offered. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser.