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Discover more about banking with usLast week was overall relatively quiet, despite a few major events. First, China’s mainland stock markets reopened after the long pause of the Golden Week. It wasn’t a triumph, as many “fast-money” investors took profits following the vertical rise of the previous sessions, as briefings from authorities did not provide many details with regards to the fiscal stimulus plan.
In the US, the FOMC minutes revealed that the jumbo 50-basis-point cut of September was not as unanimously endorsed as we may have initially thought. Furthermore, the September CPI inflation report was mixed: headline slowed, but core inflation rose, both printing 0.1% above their respective median consensus forecast. Fortunately, implied expectations for the Fed had already become much more reasonable a week ago with the stellar September job report. As a result, only the long end of the yield curve steepened, by a contained +10 basis points. Finally, the Q3 corporate earnings season started on a positive note on Friday, with good numbers from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
We held our monthly investment committee on Tuesday, which didn’t decide any change in positioning at the asset class level. Still, our equity team decided to overweight China within our Emerging Markets allocation. We reduced our overweight on India to add to China, where we see upside potential, at the price of serious volatility.
The week ahead will see more corporate earnings, as well as probably a 25bps cut from the ECB, and various economic data, including inflation in Europe as well as retail sales and industrial production for both the US and China. Have a great week.
Cross-asset Update
Quite some newsflow and market action nowadays is China-dependent, especially when it comes to the broadening of the ongoing equity rally. Analysts and strategists were underwhelmed by the briefing of the Chinese Ministry of Finance on Saturday, that failed to attach a hard number to the pledge to shore up the economy. And this disappointment seems now to be recurrent, and it may be stemming more from market expectations being misaligned, than from actual lack of commitment by the Chinese authorities. The liquidity injections implemented by the PBOC, and the statements made by key officials before the briefing already constituted an element of novelty, showing the determination to do more to address the deflationary pressures in the country. And investors welcomed the change of stance with an impressive rise in domestic equities. On Saturday the MOF announced support for local governments, and for state-owned banks, the former in turn being then able to address issues in the real-estate sector, the latter to increase lending to promote economic growth. And the resources would be coming from the issuance of special government bonds, so through much-awaited fiscal measures. Yes, there was no mention about the size of the intervention. Yet, investors should have by now learnt that Beijing, though availing huge resources, prefers a gradual approach. The year-end 5% growth target should be met simply owing to the additional liquidity made available by the PBOC. Specific announcements may well be possible if not at the China’s legislature meeting in the coming weeks, then by year-end or early next year. At that time, it will be crucial for government officials to walk the talk and promote growth in 2025.
So, in our view the commitment and the resources are there, and it is not by chance that this morning markets scored gains from the initial disappointment. Iron ore futures in Singapore reversed early declines, while copper retraced losses. Equities in mainland China ended in positive territory, while Hong Kong traded in a holding pattern. What is even more important, is that the rally is broadening in the Western markets, and the Chinese stimulus is playing a role. DM markets ex-US rose 6.7% in the previous quarter, beating the S&P 500 that put in a 5.5% return, and small caps globally climbed by 8.9%. Investors are also taking the resilience of the US economy at face value, and financials, a cyclical sector exposed to the domestic economy, recorded new all-time highs last week.
Overall, barring black swans from the presidential elections or the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, we see reason to have a constructive stance into year-end.
Fixed Income Update
Last week was relatively calm for bond markets. The CPI numbers came worse than expected with Core CPI increasing by 0.3% last month. However, the impact on treasury curve was moderated by a higher than anticipated Initial Jobless claims that came in at 258k. The US Treasury yield curve bear steepened last week. The 2-year remained anchored around 3.9% while the 10-year yields touched 4.1% and the 30-year ended the week at 4.4%. However, the gauge of treasury volatility, MOVE Index remains high at 118.
FOMC minutes released last week indicated that the 50 bps rate cut in the September meeting was not a done deal with pushback from members. The minutes mentioned “Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25-basis-point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.” Governor Michelle Bowman placed the only dissenting vote against the move. OIS swaps now price in less than six rate cuts by 2025.
This week the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday with an eye to arrest any slowdown in the employment market. This decision comes 5 weeks after the September rate cut with very little new information apart from survey data pointing to a contraction in the private-sector economy. The ECB’s assumption that it will sustainably reach its 2% inflation target in the second half of 2025 is based on a slowdown in wage gains.
The credit indices were range bound with spreads remaining tight. The Q3 earnings season kicked off last Friday on a strong footing. A good earnings season is a prerequisite for spreads to remain low. Within High Yield, CCC spreads have compressed massively since May this year. However, the economics of refinancing for most CCC issuers remains challenging and we avoid these issuers with our exposure within CCC bucket being limited to certain high quality bank subordinated papers from Turkey.
An interesting case study on long-short IG credit basket performance vs odds of a democrat win remains non-correlated. Event risk isn’t always priced in the same way across the capital structure. Given the pull to par in credit, speculative upside is by design far more limited. The impact of tax changes, however, would affect spreads. While the current statutory corporate tax rate (federal and local) is roughly 26%, the median IG or HY-rated issuers have effective tax rates of 20% and 22%, respectively, for fiscal year 2023 according to a recent report from Goldman Sachs. According to the report, A potential decline in the federal statutory tax rate from 21% to 15% would arithmetically boost earnings by about 4%, while a hike to 28% would reduce earnings by about 5% and thus fuel some passive re-leveraging.
Equity Update
US markets power ahead, a bit disappointing on China fiscal stimulus, earnings season starts well. Global equities saw developed markets ending up last week almost a percent, while emerging markets fell 1.6% with China equities down 7%. US markets (we are overweight) saw the S&P 500 gaining +1.1%, marking its 45th record high of 2024. Tech stocks led the rally, with Nvidia gaining 8% last week, TSMC’s results are seen as a positive catalyst. Financials gained with strong results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, though late-week volatility from derivatives rebalancing curbed broader gains.
The earnings season (expectation 4.2% y/y earnings growth S&P 500 in Q3) saw the banks, setting a positive tone despite analysts having lowered estimates on lending business post the Fed’s 50bps cut. JPMorgan posted a surprise gain in NII by 3% to $23.4bn, beating expectations for a slight decline, driven by strong lending and trading. The company lifted NII expectations for 2024 as US consumers and the economy remain healthy, yet 2025 could see NII trending lower and choppy from quarter to quarter. Wells Fargo also delivered better-than-expected results, BlackRock reported strong Q3 results, AUM grew to $11.5 trillion, with robust demand for ETFs and private market investments. With the major banks Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley set to report this week, the financial sector will shape the start of this earnings season. Broad participation across US and global equity markets a positive signal as we move toward the final quarter.
European equities STOXX 600 up +0.7% last week, with consensus estimates 3% y/y earnings growth, largely driven by financials, which are expected to grow earnings 10%. However, outside of financials, earnings are forecasted to decline by 2%, weighed down by weakness in autos, consumer products, and energy. This downturn is largely attributed to China's slowing consumption, oversupply challenges, and softer demand in end markets.
We have shifted our Neutral positioning to Overweight for China, reflecting the magnitude of its easing package across fiscal, monetary, and property sectors. Current valuations remain below historical averages, offering upside potential, in consumer-driven sectors like retail and services, as policy support continues to take effect. The MSCI China Index is down -6.8% for the week, taking a break, after the stimulus-fuelled rally. Chinese equities best performing global market even after this pullback. We shift India, from Overweight to Neutral. A strong long-term growth story, current high valuations and potential for profit-taking have prompted a tactical shift toward China. India’s structural growth drivers, including urbanization, a young population, and ongoing reforms, remain intact, but China’s tactical rebound offers a more immediate opportunity at present. Japan's equity market rose supported by a weaker yen and strong US labor market data. Political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s Lower House election later this month could introduce some volatility, but sentiment remains cautiously positive.
Maurice Gravier Chief Investment Officer , [email protected]
Anita Gupta Head of Equity Strategy , [email protected]
Satyajit Singh Fixed Income Analyst , [email protected]
Giorgio Borelli Head of Asset Allocation , [email protected]
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