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Investing in the Age of Magic Money
The pandemic has lifted many taboos on public deficits and liquidity injections, starting a new era for investments “The Age of Magic Money”.
Against all odds, 2020 so far has been a great year for investments. The world is still struggling with the virus and its consequences, but markets have been boosted by the massive policy response and the recent vaccine breakthrough. Against a backdrop combing recovery with low interest rates, we are constructive for 2021 but also selective.
The one thing we always follow is to encourage our clients to diversify
The tactical playbook may have changed, from the “buy the dip” of last year to something more of a “sell on strength”
Global PMIs and a spectacular US job reports indicate a stronger than expected activity
Rising growth and inflation forecasts pushed global yields brutally higher last week.
Markets were supported by lack of inflationary pressures and unabated stimulus
Last week was very positive for risk assets in a clear “risk-on” pattern
Global stocks had their worst week since October as retail traders attacked hedge funds’ short positions
President Trump left the White House with ultra-low ratings but stock markets at record highs
President-elect Biden announced $1.9tn fiscal stimulus, and the Fed confirmed it won’t reduce support soon
Last week was eventful with a Democratic sweep and overall disappointing economic data
Daily CIO Updates
Bad fundamental news are not what markets dislike the most: uncertainty is. Last week was another example of this well-known behavioural lesson.
After a strong performance from Asia markets yesterday, with China and Hong Kong equity indices up over 2%, this morning major markets in Asia are trading down following the US close yesterday.
Asian markets are up this morning, with China and Hong Kong in the lead after falling around a percent yesterday, in line with global equities which were down half a percent.
This morning Asian equities are slightly negative, after a broad risk on day for markets globally yesterday with global equities up 2%, almost wiping out last week’s 3% fall.
After a week of yield driven market movements, with global equities losing 3% and 10 year Treasury yields rising mid-week to 1.51%, Monday has begun with a stabilization in sovereign bonds, a lower US dollar, signaling somewhat calmer markets with equity indices in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong trading up over a percent.
An intense week of equity volatility with markets yo-yoing between gains and losses.
Nobody really knows whether inflation will rise, but there is no ambiguity that the Fed will remain very accommodative for long.
Tuesday started with some volatility but ended quietly when market participants found comfort in the two awaited items of the day: Jerome Powell’s speech and the US consumer confidence.
Fundamental news are good, combining slowing infections, rising vaccinations, resilient economies and increased policy support.
The key market move of last week was a rise in interest rates, as signs converged for a steady economic recovery from Q2.
The key news of last week converged to set the stage for a strong recovery in the quarters ahead.
The quick rise in global Treasury yields did not go down well with markets and stocks saw one more mixed-to-weak session.
Yesterday was quite eventful, not so much for equities, which closed mixed to little changed depending on geographies and markets, as for bonds.
Stocks closed on a stronger note across the EM countries, in Europe and in Japan, alongside US futures pushing to new highs on occasion of the Presidents Day holiday.
Asian stocks are advancing, alongside US futures ticking higher on this President’s Day holiday, which sees the cash markets closed in the United States.
Stocks closed at new all-time highs both in the United States and in the emerging markets, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.2% and 1.7% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index 2.3% for the week respectively.
Let’s start with the key number released yesterday: +1.4%. This is the US Consumer Price Index year-on-year change as of January, which is of course the main gauge of inflation.
Let’s start with history: yesterday, Hope Probe successfully entered the orbit of Mars at 7.42 PM Dubai time.
As we wrote yesterday, last week was very positive for risk assets, lifting several equity indices to record highs and interest rates at a 2021 high.
January ended with a very negative week, combining surging Covid-19 infections, delays on US fiscal stimulus and the largest de-risking from hedge funds in a decade, under attack by retail investors on the dubbed “meme stocks”.
A strong February so far with most global indices back in the green and global equities up 2.6% year to date.
Another positive day for global equities with a strong risk on rally.
February has on its first trading day seen a global equity rally with lower volatility and technology once again taking leadership.
A volatile week for global equities which ended up 3.5% lower, ending January down by half a percent.
Global financial markets struggled to find a clear direction on Monday, integrating the risk of the US fiscal relief package to be delayed.
Last week was positive across financial markets: all the major asset classes delivered positive returns.
The Asian markets have been rising for a third straight session this morning, led by Japan and South Korea as global growth expectations are positively affected by more forthcoming US stimulus.
In the morning session stocks are mixed in Asia, with Australia headed higher and Japan in losing territory, while US futures are struggling for direction.
In the Asian morning session stocks are steady, with the Nikkei225 leading gains.
In the Asian morning session stocks are generally weaker alongside US futures, in spite of data from China pointing to a continuation of the strong recovery, with the economy back to the pre-pandemic growth rate in the fourth quarter.
Wednesday was relatively quiet on financial markets. Global stocks were little changed in developed regions and slightly down in their emerging peers
Financial markets are looking for a direction, hesitating between strong short-term headwinds and brighter medium term prospects
After a strong first week of 2021, Monday’s session on global markets was negative on pretty much everything.
The Democratic party gaining control of both houses of the US congress was the key reason behind last week’s rise in cyclical assets, with a heightened probability of more fiscal stimulus.
The first week of 2021 was eventful and volatile, but positive for cyclical assets.
Global equities gained close to half a percent yesterday with most major markets up. Major news affecting markets include Democratic control of the US Senate, the 10 year Treasury yield over 1%, oil continuing to gain and Coronavirus spread leading to continued lockdowns.
Global markets saw a broad rally yesterday with most sectors and regions up, barring the Eurozone.
The first day of trade in 2021 for most global markets saw mixed performance from Developed Market equities with U.S. indices lower, though ending off session lows, Eurozone equities positive and the UK rallying.
The first markets to start trading in 2021 are the GCC, with the first trading day yesterday
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