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CIO's Corner
The most up-to-date information from our best financial minds
CIO Global Investment Outlook Mid-Year Update Webinar – 7th July, 2020
Watch our CIO and his team present their newly adapted strategies and forward looking convictions to navigate the investment landscape in the 2nd half of 2020.
CIO Quarterly Investment Updates - Q2 2020 (recorded on 11 April)
The world is on lockdown, but markets never pause. What are our investment views and recommendations?
2020 Global Investment Outlook
Back to Reality
We started 2019 with a constructive stance, and markets didn’t prove us wrong with stellar returns. The same analysis leads to a more nuanced outlook for 2020. As we don’t expect any valuation expansion, returns should be in line with the economic reality: positive, but modest. We overweight Emerging Markets, believe in selectivity, and are prepared for the opportunities and risks of an eventful year.
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Daily CIO Updates
The coronavirus, geopolitics and quarterly earnings were the drivers of a volatile session yesterday, and this will probably happen every day in the coming weeks.
Last week was excellent on financial markets, and this one started well on global markets before the mood turned negative in the late hours of the US session.
The second quarter of 2020 was one of the best ever, and Q3 shows a strong start. In July so far, none of the major asset classes we include in our framework is negative.
Last week was another good one for global financial markets, with all major asset classes delivering positive returns, except Global Listed Real Estate.
China equities continue to rally, with echoes of 2015 at the back of investors’ minds when the market came down as quickly as it had gone up.
Shares in the U.S. closed lower yesterday, ending a run of five straight days of gains.
Asian stocks are slightly positive this morning, with the global stock rally taking a breather, after a spectacular first week performance in the second half of 2020.
Asian markets this morning are mixed with Japan and Hong Kong down about 0.5% and China equities trading up a percent.
Asian stocks are up this morning along with U.S. and European futures in spite of increasing global coronavirus cases as the opening up of economies and the stimulus from Central banks and governments is buoying investor sentiment.
Global equities have begun the third quarter of 2020 on a high note and were up 3.3% last week led by improving economic data right from China to the US.
U.S. stocks rose as positive vaccine developments and better than expected manufacturing data tempered concern over a jump in coronavirus cases.
The third quarter started yesterday on a mildly positive note on global financial markets.
U.S. stocks climbed on the final day of the best quarter since 1998 as investors assessed better-than-estimated economic data amid concern over new coronavirus cases and trade relations with China.
The second quarter of 2020 ended yesterday and it will be remembered for combining a brutal economic contraction with a spectacular bounce in financial markets.
U.S. stocks climbed after better-than-estimated economic data overshadowed concerns over an increase in coronavirus cases.
It may seem counter-intuitive: the second quarter of 2020 that will end today could be the best in more than 10 years for markets.
Global cases of Covid-19 reached 10 million yesterday, with another material increase in the daily additions.
Risk assets struggled for direction last week before ending it in the red, for one clear reason: the COVID-19 infection rates are rising again globally, and especially in the Southern States of the US.
U.S. stocks fell asinvestors grew anxious that the resurgence in virus cases in multiple states will hamper the economic recovery.
U.S. stocks rose for a second day, with investors buoyed by signs of continued economic growth and the idea that any setback will be met with increased government spending and Federal Reserve moves but faded into the close as concern mounted that a spike in virus cases in some states could curtail economic activity.
Global equities gained against a general risk-on backdrop driven by positive economic data, hopes for more stimulus and reassurance by president Trump that the trade deal with China is “fully intact”.
U.S. stocks rose, with the technology sector leading the advance as investors continued to bet on companies with strong balance sheets and better prospects in an economy where work-from-home remains part of the norm.
Markets closed in the green in the US, with the S&P500 up 0.65% and the Nasdaq 1.1% to hit a record high, in spite of rising corona virus cases and lack of meaningful catalysts.
Asian markets are trading mixed and on light volume as of the time of writing.
Global equites managed to record a 5-day gain of 2%, with the Fed launching its corporate buying program and China planning to comply with the phase one trade deal, although the MSCI World Index closed the week on a cautious note as concerns mounted about new corona virus cases.
Global financial markets were quiet Wednesday, especially compared to the extreme moves of the recent sessions.
Monday’s session on international markets went through an intraday V-shaped drama, from a risk-off wave to a rise in the end.
Markets experienced their first significant correction last week since the rally began in late March, but Friday session was positive, signalling some dip buying.
U.S. indices finished lower for the session while the Nasdaq traded briefly above the 10,000 level for the first time.
Global equities closed down by half a percent yesterday, after almost uninterrupted gains for the last 10 trading sessions.
The S&P 500 jumped to a 15-week high on Monday, extending the benchmark’s surge from its March low by almost 45%.
The US and Asian markets had a good day yesterday and this morning Asia is mixed with China and Hong Kong up and Japan a little negative.
Asian stocks start the week with gains, following last week’s sizeable global equity rally.
Markets ended a positive week with a strong close on Friday boosted by an unexpected increase in US payrolls and a bold European fiscal plan.
Global stocks extended their rally for an eighth straight day as investors clung to optimism for a quick economic recovery from the pandemic.
Wednesday was another spectacularly positive session on financial markets.
A positive day for global equities, U.S. stocks rose alongside equities in Europe and Asia amid new bouts of stimulus and positive economic signals as coronavirus lockdowns ease.
The week starts under influence of two topics: economic data in May, and violent demonstrations in the United States.
Markets didn’t pay much attention to geopolitical and social tensions last week, with an intensification of the equity rally.
U.S. stocks advanced for a third day on rising optimism that the pandemic’s damage to the economy has peaked.
The main US equity benchmarks closed the session in positive territory, with a marked divergence between the Dow Industrials, +2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite, +0.77%, pointing to value outperforming growth stocks.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed +1.2% at an 11-week high, losing some steam in the final hour of trading.
Markets recorded a broad-based risk-on session yesterday, with global equities reaching 8-week highs and the S&P 500 testing the 3000 level for the first time since March.
There was optimism Wednesday on financial markets with global stocks up c. 1%, led by the US + 1.7% (S&P 500).
U.S. stocks fell after reports circulated that Moderna Inc.’s vaccine study, which was credited in part for Monday’s rally, didn’t produce enough critical data to assess its success.
After Monday’s euphoria on a potential vaccine, markets consolidated yesterday.
In the U.S. markets rallied, the S&P 500 rose 3.2% yesterday, after promising early results for an experimental vaccine sparked speculation economies could snap back quickly.
Euphoria is the right word for yesterday’s session on global markets.
Markets panicked in March, rallied in April, and so far, are hesitating in May.
Last week was volatile and overall slightly negative on financial markets, with global stocks down 2%, commercial real estate tumbling, and Gold outperforming.
The S&P 500 briefly fell below 2,800, a level that has provided support in the past month, after the Fed Chairman said the threat of a lasting downturn could deepen without additional government spending.
U.S. stocks fell after a U.S. health official warned against a premature reopening of the economy and as traders assessed a dire outlook from the Federal Reserve regional chiefs.
Volatility and risk aversion came back on markets on Tuesday, affected by several warnings.
U.S. stocks fluctuated on the day as traders assessed the latest moves around the globe to relax restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Last week’s most spectacular number was the US unemployment rate which reached 14.7% in April.
U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and worsening economic data.
Global stocks fell 0.3% Wednesday, with Emerging Markets slightly positive.
U.S. stocks closed higher despite a late-day swoon as optimism that more economies are moving toward easing their coronavirus lockdowns outweighed cautionary comments from Federal Reserve Officials.
Markets were overall well oriented on Tuesday, as lockdown relaxations are either starting or seriously considered everywhere.
U.S. stocks started the week on a positive note, rallying towards the close after California spoke of reopening the economy.
Like it or not, the US is the world’s leading market and Monday’s session was no exception.
Last week was positive on global markets until Thursday, then May started with stocks retreating on Friday.
With many major economic numbers being released, last week provided more details on the COVID19 impact.
Wednesday was buoyant on financial markets, despite the confirmation of an economic disaster.
After falling last week, U.S. equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.5%) yesterday as talks of additional states beginning to re-open boosted investor sentiment.
Last week was overall negative for risk assets, with global equities and high yield losing -2%.
U.S. stocks rebounded after a two-day slide as optimism about the reopening of the economy increased along with a rebound in oil and Senate approval of additional funding for the PPP.
Markets gave back some recent gains with the S&P 500 declining over 3% yesterday.
U.S. stocks fell from a six-week high, with investors on edge as oil futures plunged to unprecedented levels and with a spate of corporate earnings on tap
Virus Update: Total fiscal and monetary support reaches USD 1.9 trillion across the globe according to Bloomberg;
Virus Update: Federal US Govt encourages teleworking and minimize face-to-face interactions.
Virus Update: California approves USD 500 Mn corona virus package;
Virus Update: Europe which is now the epicentre of the outbreak, faces draconian restrictions including border lockdowns and restriction of movement for citizens
The impact from the coronavirus is weighing on market sentiment and making it more difficult for Asian-based bond issuers with primary bond sales.
The Chinese coronavirus triggered a clear aversion to risk across the financial markets, sending equities sharply lower, especially in Emerging Markets, as well as Oil and cyclical commodities.
FOMC rate decision awaited today with markets believing FED to maintain status-quo
Asian markets opening on a strong footing on the back of strong macroeconomic data
Investors’ worry on headline news on prolonging tariffs by the US on Chinese goods
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