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Watch our CIO and his team present their newly adapted strategies and forward looking convictions to navigate the investment landscape in the 2nd half of 2020.
CIO Quarterly Investment Updates - Q2 2020 (recorded on 11 April)
The world is on lockdown, but markets never pause. What are our investment views and recommendations?
2020 Global Investment Outlook
Back to Reality
We started 2019 with a constructive stance, and markets didn’t prove us wrong with stellar returns. The same analysis leads to a more nuanced outlook for 2020. As we don’t expect any valuation expansion, returns should be in line with the economic reality: positive, but modest. We overweight Emerging Markets, believe in selectivity, and are prepared for the opportunities and risks of an eventful year.
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Markets were little changed in the United States and Europe stocks fell on partial lockdowns clouding the outlook.
Markets are stuck in a holding pattern amidst a lack of catalysts, both unwilling to give up gains in spite of dwindling chances of any forthcoming fiscal aid from Congress and unable to break out higher with the Nov. 3 risk event looming larger.
Markets retreated from early gains driven by hopeful news about pre-election US fiscal stimulus to close in the red.
About a week ago Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO, said that “right now, this market wants to go higher”.
Global markets closed the week on a positive note, snapping a three-day losing streak following strong US retail sales and above-consensus earnings from European companies.
U.S. stocks dropped after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin downplayed the chances of striking a stimulus deal before the election.
Wednesday was overall quiet on global stocks, flat in emerging markets and down -0.2% in developed markets on average, but the US retreated -0.6%.
After a strong Monday, the mood was more cautious on financial markets yesterday.
U.S. stocks climbed to an almost six-week high amid a rally in some of the world’s largest technology companies.
Monday was a strong start to the international week on markets.
Last week was excellent for global assets, and our regional markets also gained yesterday, led by KSA, up 1.2%.
This year was rich in surprises, and last week was undoubtedly one of them.
Markets made up for the previous day’s losses closing in the green across the board.
Pre-election time is indeed living up to its claim of being a volatile period for equities.
The event of the week was the hospitalisation of President Trump infected by Covid19, which saw risk assets succumb to rising volatility on Friday.
The year 2020 has so far proven to be a dramatic one for investors
Global financial markets ended the month, and the quarter, on a slightly positive note yesterday.
As we write, the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden just ended, and it was undoubtedly very heated, if not outright aggressive, not far from insults at some times with for example Mr Biden telling the president to “shut-up”.
September should be the first negative month since March on global markets, but the magnitude of the sell-off remains reasonable.
Despite a rebound on Friday, last week was broadly negative on global markets across asset classes, paving the way for September to be the first negative month since March.
The markets continue to be volatile and most major equity indices are on track to post their first monthly decline, since March.
Global markets were up almost half a percent yesterday, after the Monday sell off, though September could possibly be the first negative month since March.
The September autumnal equinox on September 22nd, with the sun moving from north to south, brings around a change of seasons.
Asia markets are slightly lower today, after a very positive week.
September continues to see volatile markets, though global markets ended the week up 0.2%.
U.S. stocks erased gains amid a selloff in technology companies and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks over an uncertain economic rebound without further stimulus.
“Buy Jackson Hole, sell the FOMC”: markets loved the August announcement of the Fed’s new tolerance towards inflation, but they didn’t like its official confirmation yesterday after the monthly policy meeting.
U.S. stocks closed higher as gains in technology shares helped offset a late slide in financials.
Financial markets were well oriented and overall quiet yesterday.
Monday’s market session was positive, supported by progress on a vaccine and by the announcement of large M&A deals.
The last two weeks have been volatile on financial markets, with a technologycentric correction in equities.
After a glorious summer, led by an apparently unbreakable rally in technology stocks, the start of September is much more dramatic.
The US markets staged a rebound to end the session off their highs, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq yesterday gaining 2% and 2.7% respectively.
U.S. stock markets were closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.
With North American markets closed for Labour day, volumes were lower than usual in Europe, where the Europe Stoxx 600 closed 1.7% higher led by automakers.
In the US and Canada it is going to be a holiday-shortened week, with markets closed today for Labor Day.
Global markets seemed to be in for more of the same last week, with stimulus running aplenty and economies performing just fine to warrant continued risk taking, when suddenly technology stocks on Thursday reversed course causing the biggest rout since June.
Wednesday was another greatly positive session on global markets, confirming the impression of an unbreakable rally.
56 was the number of the day: the August ISM Manufacturing survey posted a large increase over the already respectable 54.2 of July and was, as we were hoping for in yesterday's daily notes, clearly above expectations.
Monday ended a brilliant month with a mixed session on financial markets.
Last week was another proof of the strength of the current rally.
Against many predictions, the rally remained strong last week, with robust positive returns from almost all major asset classes.
U.S. stocks extended a streak of record gains amid rising expectations for loose monetary policy while the economy shows signs of recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.
U.S. equities rose to all-time highs for a third day, with investors counting on the Fed to stay accommodative as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
Tuesday was another positive session for risk assets globally, with key US stock indices notching fresh all-time highs again, led by technology, again.
Optimism dominated markets on Monday, boosted by news flow about COVID-19 treatments and vaccine, as well as by some de-escalation between the US and China.
U.S. stocks dropped after the Federal Reserve tempered optimism about growth in the second half of 2020.
U.S. stocks completed the fastest-ever return to a record high, capping a 52% rally from the March low surpassing February highs for the first time since the pandemic upended financial markets.
U.S. stock climbed amid a rally in technology companies, while failing to top their all-time high as big banks sold off.
Global financial markets are waiting for the expected next good news. In the meantime, as there are not many sellers due to overall light positioning, they gently rise.
Last week, defensive assets underperformed, with gold down 4% and a slight rise in interest rates affecting the fixed income asset class.
Financial markets moved on growth and inflation last week, in what looked like a “riskon” pattern.
A broad global rally, with the MSCI All-Country World Index closing up 1.2% yesterday.
This morning Asian markets are mildly positive, following a broad global rally, with the MSCI All-Country World Index closing up 1.2% yesterday.
Most Asian markets are down this morning with Japan slightly positive.
Ongoing US and China tensions continue to weigh on markets, however the S&P 500 approached its all- time high reached in February and Apple is close to being the first two trillion dollar company.
Global equity markets advanced last week, buoyed by optimism over potential COVID19 vaccines and better than expected earnings results.
Global equities were up 2.1% for the week, despite exacerbated U.S.-China tensions, the continuing rise in global COVID-19 cases and stalled talks in the US Congress around a new fiscal relief package.
The S&P 500 Index posted a fourth straight advance amid encouraging news on the vaccine front and speculation U.S. lawmakers are making progress on an economic aid package.
Wednesday was positive on financial markets, supported by optimism in the US.
U.S. equities rose higher after wavering between small losses and gains throughout the day.
A massive explosion shook Lebanon’s capital yesterday evening, killing at least 70 people, injuring thousands, and making considerable damage to the city.
After a positive week and month, August had a strong start on global markets yesterday, fuelled by positive economic data and hopes for additional stimulus.
Last week was positive on all the major asset classes we follow, and contributed to the same picture for July.
U.S. stocks climbed, led by technology shares on speculation the Federal Reserve will reinforce its dovish message.
It’s a strong start to the week for global markets as markets anticipate more fiscal and monetary support in the US.
Last week was better for defensive assets than for cyclical ones.
Yesterday US stocks clung to modest gains, Europe closed in the red, and as of the time of writing Asia is mixed to steady in the morning session.
Markets are off to a mixed start as of the time of writing, with Asian stocks showing no clear direction and US futures slightly in the green.
U.S. stocks advanced to the highest since February, hopes for positive data from an array of COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
Asian stocks are in the green this morning, boosted by a technology-led rally in the US, progress towards a vaccine and expectations for more stimulus on both sides of the Atlantic.
While investors continue to set great store by a new vaccine being found in a reasonable time as the final solution to the current crisis, some renowned virus hunters have made quite sobering statements on the topic.
US equities in the five days to Friday capped off a performance once more at odds with harsh reality.
U.S. stocks climbed to a one-month high amid optimism about progress in developing a vaccine for the coronavirus.
The coronavirus, geopolitics and quarterly earnings were the drivers of a volatile session yesterday, and this will probably happen every day in the coming weeks.
Last week was excellent on financial markets, and this one started well on global markets before the mood turned negative in the late hours of the US session.
The second quarter of 2020 was one of the best ever, and Q3 shows a strong start. In July so far, none of the major asset classes we include in our framework is negative.
Last week was another good one for global financial markets, with all major asset classes delivering positive returns, except Global Listed Real Estate.
China equities continue to rally, with echoes of 2015 at the back of investors’ minds when the market came down as quickly as it had gone up.
Shares in the U.S. closed lower yesterday, ending a run of five straight days of gains.
Asian stocks are slightly positive this morning, with the global stock rally taking a breather, after a spectacular first week performance in the second half of 2020.
Asian markets this morning are mixed with Japan and Hong Kong down about 0.5% and China equities trading up a percent.
Asian stocks are up this morning along with U.S. and European futures in spite of increasing global coronavirus cases as the opening up of economies and the stimulus from Central banks and governments is buoying investor sentiment.
Global equities have begun the third quarter of 2020 on a high note and were up 3.3% last week led by improving economic data right from China to the US.
U.S. stocks rose as positive vaccine developments and better than expected manufacturing data tempered concern over a jump in coronavirus cases.
The third quarter started yesterday on a mildly positive note on global financial markets.
U.S. stocks climbed on the final day of the best quarter since 1998 as investors assessed better-than-estimated economic data amid concern over new coronavirus cases and trade relations with China.
The second quarter of 2020 ended yesterday and it will be remembered for combining a brutal economic contraction with a spectacular bounce in financial markets.
U.S. stocks climbed after better-than-estimated economic data overshadowed concerns over an increase in coronavirus cases.
It may seem counter-intuitive: the second quarter of 2020 that will end today could be the best in more than 10 years for markets.
Global cases of Covid-19 reached 10 million yesterday, with another material increase in the daily additions.
Risk assets struggled for direction last week before ending it in the red, for one clear reason: the COVID-19 infection rates are rising again globally, and especially in the Southern States of the US.
U.S. stocks fell asinvestors grew anxious that the resurgence in virus cases in multiple states will hamper the economic recovery.
U.S. stocks rose for a second day, with investors buoyed by signs of continued economic growth and the idea that any setback will be met with increased government spending and Federal Reserve moves but faded into the close as concern mounted that a spike in virus cases in some states could curtail economic activity.
Global equities gained against a general risk-on backdrop driven by positive economic data, hopes for more stimulus and reassurance by president Trump that the trade deal with China is “fully intact”.
U.S. stocks rose, with the technology sector leading the advance as investors continued to bet on companies with strong balance sheets and better prospects in an economy where work-from-home remains part of the norm.
Markets closed in the green in the US, with the S&P500 up 0.65% and the Nasdaq 1.1% to hit a record high, in spite of rising corona virus cases and lack of meaningful catalysts.
Asian markets are trading mixed and on light volume as of the time of writing.
Global equites managed to record a 5-day gain of 2%, with the Fed launching its corporate buying program and China planning to comply with the phase one trade deal, although the MSCI World Index closed the week on a cautious note as concerns mounted about new corona virus cases.
Global financial markets were quiet Wednesday, especially compared to the extreme moves of the recent sessions.
Monday’s session on international markets went through an intraday V-shaped drama, from a risk-off wave to a rise in the end.
Markets experienced their first significant correction last week since the rally began in late March, but Friday session was positive, signalling some dip buying.
Global equities had a slightly negative day across the board.
Global equities had a slightly negative day across the board.
U.S. indices finished lower for the session while the Nasdaq traded briefly above the 10,000 level for the first time.
Global equities closed down by half a percent yesterday, after almost uninterrupted gains for the last 10 trading sessions.
The S&P 500 jumped to a 15-week high on Monday, extending the benchmark’s surge from its March low by almost 45%.
The US and Asian markets had a good day yesterday and this morning Asia is mixed with China and Hong Kong up and Japan a little negative.
Asian stocks start the week with gains, following last week’s sizeable global equity rally.
Markets ended a positive week with a strong close on Friday boosted by an unexpected increase in US payrolls and a bold European fiscal plan.
Global stocks extended their rally for an eighth straight day as investors clung to optimism for a quick economic recovery from the pandemic.
Wednesday was another spectacularly positive session on financial markets.
A positive day for global equities, U.S. stocks rose alongside equities in Europe and Asia amid new bouts of stimulus and positive economic signals as coronavirus lockdowns ease.
Global stocks had a good day, gaining 1.1% with EM outperforming.
The week starts under influence of two topics: economic data in May, and violent demonstrations in the United States.
Markets didn’t pay much attention to geopolitical and social tensions last week, with an intensification of the equity rally.
U.S. stocks advanced for a third day on rising optimism that the pandemic’s damage to the economy has peaked.
The main US equity benchmarks closed the session in positive territory, with a marked divergence between the Dow Industrials, +2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite, +0.77%, pointing to value outperforming growth stocks.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed +1.2% at an 11-week high, losing some steam in the final hour of trading.
Markets recorded a broad-based risk-on session yesterday, with global equities reaching 8-week highs and the S&P 500 testing the 3000 level for the first time since March.
There was optimism Wednesday on financial markets with global stocks up c. 1%, led by the US + 1.7% (S&P 500).
U.S. stocks fell after reports circulated that Moderna Inc.’s vaccine study, which was credited in part for Monday’s rally, didn’t produce enough critical data to assess its success.
After Monday’s euphoria on a potential vaccine, markets consolidated yesterday.
In the U.S. markets rallied, the S&P 500 rose 3.2% yesterday, after promising early results for an experimental vaccine sparked speculation economies could snap back quickly.
Euphoria is the right word for yesterday’s session on global markets.
Markets panicked in March, rallied in April, and so far, are hesitating in May.
Last week was volatile and overall slightly negative on financial markets, with global stocks down 2%, commercial real estate tumbling, and Gold outperforming.
The S&P 500 briefly fell below 2,800, a level that has provided support in the past month, after the Fed Chairman said the threat of a lasting downturn could deepen without additional government spending.
Risk aversion continued weighing on global markets Wednesday.
U.S. stocks fell after a U.S. health official warned against a premature reopening of the economy and as traders assessed a dire outlook from the Federal Reserve regional chiefs.
Volatility and risk aversion came back on markets on Tuesday, affected by several warnings.
U.S. stocks fluctuated on the day as traders assessed the latest moves around the globe to relax restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Last week’s most spectacular number was the US unemployment rate which reached 14.7% in April.
U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and worsening economic data.
Global stocks fell 0.3% Wednesday, with Emerging Markets slightly positive.
U.S. stocks closed higher despite a late-day swoon as optimism that more economies are moving toward easing their coronavirus lockdowns outweighed cautionary comments from Federal Reserve Officials.
Markets were overall well oriented on Tuesday, as lockdown relaxations are either starting or seriously considered everywhere.
U.S. stocks started the week on a positive note, rallying towards the close after California spoke of reopening the economy.
Like it or not, the US is the world’s leading market and Monday’s session was no exception.
Last week was positive on global markets until Thursday, then May started with stocks retreating on Friday.
With many major economic numbers being released, last week provided more details on the COVID19 impact.
Wednesday was buoyant on financial markets, despite the confirmation of an economic disaster.
After falling last week, U.S. equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.5%) yesterday as talks of additional states beginning to re-open boosted investor sentiment.
Last week was overall negative for risk assets, with global equities and high yield losing -2%.
U.S. stocks rebounded after a two-day slide as optimism about the reopening of the economy increased along with a rebound in oil and Senate approval of additional funding for the PPP.
Markets gave back some recent gains with the S&P 500 declining over 3% yesterday.
U.S. stocks fell from a six-week high, with investors on edge as oil futures plunged to unprecedented levels and with a spate of corporate earnings on tap
Virus Update: Total fiscal and monetary support reaches USD 1.9 trillion across the globe according to Bloomberg;
Virus Update: Federal US Govt encourages teleworking and minimize face-to-face interactions.
Virus Update: California approves USD 500 Mn corona virus package;
Virus Update: Europe which is now the epicentre of the outbreak, faces draconian restrictions including border lockdowns and restriction of movement for citizens
US equities rise with Nasdaq hitting an all-time high of 9485
The impact from the coronavirus is weighing on market sentiment and making it more difficult for Asian-based bond issuers with primary bond sales.
The Chinese coronavirus triggered a clear aversion to risk across the financial markets, sending equities sharply lower, especially in Emerging Markets, as well as Oil and cyclical commodities.
FOMC rate decision awaited today with markets believing FED to maintain status-quo
Asian markets opening on a strong footing on the back of strong macroeconomic data
While investors are positioned for risk-on resulting in positive return for risky assets, the markets still remain sensitive to trade developments.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
US markets managed to close higher overnight while the European bourses posted losses.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
Treasuries bear steepened for the second consecutive session as long duration bonds led the declines, spurred by a better-than-expected reading on the ISM non-manufacturing gauge.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
A better tone for risk assets with most of the indices posting gains across the board.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
Risk assets mixed trading this morning across Asia as investor’s focus turn to the FED's FOMC.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
Short-term US treasury bills posted gains amid J.Powell’s announcement that the central bank will resume purchase of Treasuries in order to calm funding markets.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
Treasury futures opened higher after Chinese officials were said to be reluctant to commit to a broad trade deal demanded by Washington.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
Asian risk assets posting losses across the board on poor economic data releases, particularly on the global manufacturing front.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
Asian risk assets on a stronger footing this morning across the major indices.
اقرأ الملفّ اخلاء مسؤولية الملاحظات الصوتية
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