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CIO's Corner
The most up-to-date information from our best financial minds

A new year, a new strategic asset allocation

CIO Global Investment Outlook Mid-Year Update Webinar – 7th July, 2020

Watch our CIO and his team present their newly adapted strategies and forward looking convictions to navigate the investment landscape in the 2nd half of 2020.

Watch Video

Our last weekly publication of 2020

CIO Quarterly Investment Updates - Q2 2020 (recorded on 11th April)

The world is on lockdown, but markets never pause. What are our investment views and recommendations?



Watch Video

The end of the tunnel?

2020 Global Investment Outlook

Back to Reality

We started 2019 with a constructive stance, and markets didn’t prove us wrong with stellar returns. The same analysis leads to a more nuanced outlook for 2020.

Watch Video
Read Report

Market Insights Weekly Insights Daily Insights

Previous articles

UK QUARTERLY PROPERTY MARKET REVIEW Q4 2020

UK QUARTERLY PROPERTY MARKET REVIEW Q4 2020

Rebound in Commercial Property in Q3 but investment activity still low compared to previous years

19.11.2020
Riding the recovery wave

Expected impact on equity markets from the U.S. elections

The key event of 2020 was of course when an initially obscure virus from China became a global pandemic.

14.10.2020
Riding the recovery wave

Riding the recovery wave

A muted recovery in the making

08.10.2020
The other directional risk: an outright valuation bubble?

The other directional risk: an outright valuation bubble?

No doubt, market action could be shocking, and not only on the downside

26.08.2020
UK QUARTERLY PROPERTY MARKET REVIEW Q3 2020

UK QUARTERLY PROPERTY MARKET REVIEW Q3 2020

Commercial Property Investment volumes down 72% in Q2

24.08.2020
The dangerous pursuit of the perfect market timing

The dangerous pursuit of the perfect market timing

The current market situation may be as unpredictable as ever.

27.07.2020
Markets Are Priced for Perfect Recovery

Markets Are Priced for Perfect Recovery

Maurice Gravier discusses his investment strategy and outlook for markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe.” (Source: Bloomberg)

14.07.2020
Investment in the current environment

Investment in the current environment

The next few months will be volatile for stocks, and we could see a serious correction.

07.07.2020
It's time to be tactically cautious, but not overly pessimistic

It's time to be tactically cautious, but not overly pessimistic

Coming months should provide opportunities to add to cyclical exposure when markets become more realistically priced

28.06.2020
Can investors trust the surprise market recovery?

Can investors trust the surprise market recovery?

The disconnect between the dismal global economic outlook and rallying stock markets is difficult to comprehend

16.06.2020
Stock markets and reality: dissecting the disconnection

Stock markets and reality: dissecting the disconnection

Entire sectors are devastated, across manufacturing and service activities.

21.05.2020
UK Quarterly Property Market Review Q2 2020

UK Quarterly Property Market Review Q2 2020

COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption and a worldwide sell-off in financial markets. Impact on UK property will be felt in coming months

17.05.2020
THE CASE FOR CREDIT – HIGH QUALITY AND HIGHER RETURNS

THE CASE FOR CREDIT – HIGH QUALITY AND HIGHER RETURNS

We hold the view that conditions are right to invest in credit* to reap positive returns without running abnormally high risks.

04.05.2020
The unstable equilibrium of financial markets

The unstable equilibrium of financial markets

There is reasonable hope that the economy will restart in H2, but as markets are already priced for it, the system is vulnerable, and unstable

27.04.2020
Is investing in stocks, bonds and gold a good idea in the current market?

Is investing in stocks, bonds and gold a good idea in the current market?

With the coronavirus outbreak still dominating our lives, stock market volatility looks set to continue.

14.04.2020
InvestingWith global stock markets on a roller-coaster ride, where should YOU put YOUR hard-earned savings?

With global stock markets on a roller-coaster ride, where should YOU put YOUR hard-earned savings?

Be bold like Saudi Arabia, and buy travel companies hammered by the corona outbreak, like cruise liner Carnival? Or stick your dirhams under the mattress?

08.04.2020
Investing in the time of coronavirus, Dos and Don'ts

Investing in the time of coronavirus, Dos and Don'ts

The difference between speculation and investment is basically diversification and rationality

23.03.2020
Adding a Defensive Tilt in the Late Cycle

It's time to take profits on developed markets

As previously published on Refinitiv

23.02.2020
Adding a Defensive Tilt in the Late Cycle

Adding a Defensive Tilt in the Late Cycle

Select companies with sustainable dividend strategies

17.09.2019
Economic Cycles: Charting The Uncharted

Economic Cycles: Charting The Uncharted

Financial Markets are becoming increasingly volatile with deep market gyrations and price swings.

25.08.2019
Top Bond Ideas

Top Bond Ideas

  • US-China trade relationship intensifies
  • Global Inflation readings still benign
  • US Payrolls - strongest in nearly five decades

30.05.2019
India - Economic Growth Agenda Needs to Continue

India - Economic Growth Agenda Needs to Continue

PM Modi to regain power with his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party poised for a comfortable majority

23.05.2019
SUKUK - A Unique Proposition

SUKUK - A Unique Proposition

Sukuk (the plural of Sakk, which means certificate in Arabic) are Islamic finance certificates that comply with Islamic sharia investment principles.

24.03.2019
Higher Yield Not High Yield

Higher Yield Not High Yield

It remains a tale of two cities on what the Fed communicates through their macroassessment versus what the market anticipates and prices-in.

25.04.2019
India Market Outlook, On The Cusp Of Elections

India Market Outlook, On The Cusp Of Elections

As elections are approaching, markets should become more agnostic to the outcome

24.03.2019
CNBC Arabia Emirates NBD CIO Interview

CNBC Arabia Emirates NBD CIO Interview

As elections are approaching, markets should become more agnostic to the outcome

20.02.2019
A Strategy for Fixed Income Diversification

A Strategy for Fixed Income Diversification

Bonds play a critical role in portfolios, even as interest rates rise and fears of inflation and an equity market downturn have intensified.

20.02.2019
Brexit Deal November 2018

Brexit Deal November 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May convinces her Cabinet to agree the final technical terms, but suffers Cabinet resignations and widespread criticism

20.11.2018
The Video Gaming Industry

The Video Gaming Industry

Video Gaming is a multi-billion industry that is growing exponentially.

20.11.2018
GCC Bond Markets

GCC Bond Markets

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is the political and economic alliance of six Middle Eastern countries.

1.11.2018
India: Strong Growth tempered by INR weakness and high oil prices

India: Strong Growth tempered by INR weakness and high oil prices

Strong economic growth appears sustainable

30.09.2018
The Changing Face of Globalisation

The Changing Face of Globalisation

The first half of 2018 witnessed the return of volatility and hasn’t rewarded investors with great returns so far.

12.07.2018
Big ships often sail on big debts

Big ships often sail on big debts

China's debt level and growth are manageable.

24.06.2018
MSCI Emerging Market Index Inclusion: A Game Changer

Saudi Arabia: MSCI Emerging Market Index Inclusion: A Game Changer

Inclusion in the MSCI EM Index should be well received by investors

21.06.2018
The Month that Was – April 2018

The Month that Was – April 2018

Following a weak Q1 risk assets rebounded in the month of April, supported by robust corporate earnings in the US and in Europe, fading trade war threats and stabilizing business sentiment.

06.05.2018
When Markets Move

When Markets Move

Volatility is back. With vigour and veracity.
Surging Global Debt The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Surging Global Debt The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Global debt currently stands at just over USD 233tn “Debt is a form of wealth” – surge in debt should translate into global growth
The Global Sell-Off - An Overdue Consolidation

The Global Sell-Off - An Overdue Consolidation

The S&P500 is 8.1% down peak-to-trough and -0.9% YTD. Yesterday, the Index fell -4.1% and is now trading below its 50-day moving average.

06.02.2018
India Budget FY 2018-2019 Focus on Growth Again

India Budget FY 2018-2019 Focus on Growth Again

Strong economic growth above 8% looks possible Urban and rural infrastructure a key focus

04.02-2018

Previous articles

Our last weekly publication of 2020

Our last weekly publication of 2020

So far our three recommended profiles are up between 9% and 11% in 2020

13.12.2020
The end of the tunnel?

The end of the tunnel?

November’s market returns were outstanding and last week was positive across asset-classes

06.12.2020
Adjusting to a clearer 2021 outlook

Adjusting to a clearer 2021 outlook

There was no major market-moving event last week, after a stream of breaking news in November

29.11.2020
A vaccine against bearishness?

A vaccine against bearishness?

Last week brought an avalanche of negative virus news, threatening the short-term economic outlook

22.11.2020
Vaccine hopes boost markets – we adjust our exposures

Vaccine hopes boost markets – we adjust our exposures

Positive developments on a vaccine pushed markets higher last week with some reaching all-time highs

15.11.2020
A disputed election, a virus resurgence… And a huge rally

A disputed election, a virus resurgence… And a huge rally

Mr Biden wins Presidency according to main media, but Mr Trump rejects the outcome

08.11.2020
A virus’s comeback, and a crucial week ahead

A virus’s comeback, and a crucial week ahead

All markets fell sharply last week, with developed markets’ stocks tumbling by almost -6%

01.11.2020
Maximum uncertainty should be transitory

Maximum uncertainty should be transitory

Trading was volatile last week, with negative Covid developments and raging US politics

25.10.2020
Presidential town halls, Brexit and a rising China

Presidential town halls, Brexit and a rising China

Virus resurgence, Brexit and no relief package in the US made for a choppy week

18.10.2020
Volatility works both ways: another incredible week

Volatility works both ways: another incredible week

Despite incredibly erratic newsflow, last week was the best since July on global markets

11.10.2020
Short-term uncertainty spikes

Short-term uncertainty spikes

President Trump hospitalized after testing positive for COVID-19

04.10.2020
Known catalysts with an unknown timing

Known catalysts with an unknown timing

Last week was negative across all asset-classes, even the defensive ones

27.09.2020
Momentum loss in markets continues

Momentum loss in markets continue

Last week was volatile and overall only slightly positive as the last sessions were negative

20.09.2020
Between emotion and reason

Between emotion and reason

Last week’s key take-away was a reminder that yes, technology stocks can go down

13.09.2020
A brutal profit-taking episode

A brutal profit-taking episode

The week had a strong start but ended with a sharp 2-day decline led by technology stocks

06.09.2020
Fighting the Fed isn’t easy

Fighting the Fed isn’t easy

Last week the Federal Reserve said interest rates could stay at zero even if inflation rises

30.08.2020
Gently approaching the end of the summer

Gently approaching the end of the summer

Last week was unspectacular on global markets, with a notable outperformance of UAE assets

23.08.2020
Living with the virus

Living with the virus

The consumer recovery decelerates, attention turns to manufacturing and inflation

16.08.2020
Rising risks, rising markets

Rising risks, rising markets

Positive activity data lifted financial markets higher in the first week of August…

09.08.2020
Summertime

Summertime

Gold shines as 2020’s top performing asset class by a wide margin

26.07.2020
The “end of the beginning” of the recovery

The “end of the beginning” of the recovery

Markets had a positive bias last week despite some profit-taking in EM stocks

19.07.2020
Turbulences ahead in the short-term?

Turbulences ahead in the short-term?

Last week was overall positive for global markets, with China and Technology outperforming

12.07.2020
Q3 starts well but we still expect volatility ahead

Q3 starts well but we still expect volatility ahead

Hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and good macro numbers supported markets last week

05.07.2020
Time to be cautious, but not too pessimistic

Time to be cautious, but not too pessimistic

Markets are concerned by the resurgence of infections worldwide, especially in the US

28.06.2020
Preparing for a volatile summer

Preparing for a volatile summer

Last week was much better for markets than the previous one, but it was still turbulent

21.06.2020
We start tactically reducing risk in our asset allocation

We start tactically reducing risk in our asset allocation

Global markets experienced their first correction since April, last week

14.06.2020
Booming markets: bearish capitulation is coming to an end

Booming markets: bearish capitulation is coming to an end

The rally in risk-assets went ballistic last week, with a clear pro-cyclical picture

07.06.2020
“Sell in May” wouldn’t have been a great idea this time

“Sell in May” wouldn’t have been a great idea this time

The rally in risk-assets intensified last week, ending a very positive month of May

31.05.2020
Less containment, more growth

Less containment, more growth?

Western economies are gradually reopening, potentially starting the global rebound this month

17.05.2020
Disconnected

Disconnected?

The US unemployment rate in April reached 14.7%, but Chinese exports rose in April

10.05.2020
A strong start to the second quarter

A strong start to the second quarter

Q1 GDP numbers are out and show an historic, synchronized, double-digit collapse

03.05.2020
Unstable equilibrium

Unstable equilibrium

Last week was volatile, between concerns on the COVID19 shock and hopes for the recovery

26.04.2020
Reopening soon?

Reopening soon?

Exit strategies from social distancing are being discussed everywhere, but really started only in China

19.04.2020
A strong start to the quarter

A strong start to the quarter

Markets rallied last week, as the size and scope of policy responses dramatically increased

12.04.2020
The beginning of a crucial quarter

The beginning of a crucial quarter

The attempt at market stabilization last week was halted by March economic data

05.04.2020
A welcome, but still fragile, rebound

A welcome, but still fragile, rebound

Last week saw a sharp rebound across all asset classes, led by developed market equities

29.03.2020
Global economic contraction ahead

Global economic contraction ahead

The COVID crisis is accelerating on all fronts: healthcare, economy, markets, and policy responses

22.03.2020
We will come through this – over time

We will come through this – over time

Markets crashed last week as economic lockdowns intensified globally

15.03.2020
Critical times: from concern to crisis?

Critical times: from concern to crisis?

March starts with an all-time low for US government bond yields and Oil prices crashing

08.03.2020
Global sell-off

Global sell-off

Markets ended February with one of their worst weekly performances since 2008

01.03.2020
Volatility ahead

Volatility ahead

The coronavirus continues to spread, dampening optimism about its impact

23.02.2020
Tactically reducing developed market equities

Tactically reducing developed market equities

Several of our year end fair values have been reached last week on DM equities

16.02.2020
How big, for how long?

How big, for how long?

Markets were positive last week, with hopes on the virus and positive economic signals

09.02.2020
Spreading but not yet peaking

Spreading but not yet peaking

Rapidly spreading coronavirus triggers a clear aversion to risk

02.02.2020
Coronavirus fears

Coronavirus fears

Risk assets retreated last week as the Chinese virus is expanding

26.01.2020
Another week, another rally

Another week, another rally

Optimism dominated markets last week, supported by the trade deal and positive data from China

20.01.2020
A geopolitical start to 2020

A geopolitical start to 2020

The year starts under influence of the tensions in the Middle-East

12.01.2020
A fantastic 2019, a volatile start to 2020

A fantastic 2019, a volatile start to 2020

2019 proved to be a fantastic year for financial returns…

05.01.2020
Markets celebrate receding geopolitical risks

Markets celebrate receding geopolitical risks

Global markets get a double shot of confidence from lower geopolitical risks

15.12.2019
Setting the stage for 2020

Setting the stage for 2020

Last week was volatile, with mixed messages on trade negotiations…

08.12.2019
A quiet week, a binary context

A quiet week, a binary context

The trade relations between US and China are dominating market action…

24.11.2019
Markets hold their breath

Markets hold their breath

Last week was overall positive for markets, with equities remaining close to record highs

17.11.2019
A week for risk takers

A week for risk takers

Last week was clearly pro-risk, with equities up and defensive assets down

10.11.2019
Time for a pause

Time for a pause

The Fed cut rates last week but signalled it might now stay on hold

03.11.2019
A strong start to Q4

A strong start to Q4

Benign economic and geopolitical news supported risk appetite last week

27.10.2019
Climbing the wall of worry

Climbing the wall of worry?

Last week was positive for risky assets, as geopolitical tail risks kept on abating

20.10.2019
A welcome geopolitical relief

A welcome geopolitical relief

As we hoped, US and China are moving towards a temporary truce on trade

13.10.2019
It’s not over until it’s over

It’s not over until it’s over

Volatility spiked last week due to weak US data and ever-increasing geopolitical risks

06.10.2019
An anxious quarter

An anxious quarter

After a buoyant first half, the third quarter saw a return of anxiety on multiple fronts

29.09.2019
Impressive resilience

Impressive resilience

Last week was eventful, with negative shocks and significant policy support

22.09.2019
Starting to adjust asset allocation

Starting to adjust asset allocation

Wednesday, we reduced Emerging Market debt to Neutral and added to Emerging Market equities

15.09.2019
Facing the wall of worry

Facing the wall of worry

Markets were slightly positive last week, with risk assets showing some optimism

08.09.2019
Here comes September

Here comes September

Last week was positive for risk assets, with hopes of de-escalation in the US/China trade tensions

01.09.2019
A shift in tone?

A shift in tone?

Last week was eventful, volatile, and ended on a negative note as trade tensions escalated (again)

25.08.2019
Waiting for the Fed

Summer heat

Last week was the third consecutive with negative performance for risky assets

18.08.2019
More stimulus, more tariffs, more volatility

More stimulus, more tariffs, more volatility

Fed chair Powell fails to live up to market expectations of a long easing cycle

04.08.2019
Waiting for the Fed

Waiting for the Fed

Last week saw many important news: economic data, central bank meetings, and corporate earnings

28.07.2019
Small retracement, key data ahead

Small retracement, key data ahead

Last week saw some moderate profit taking in DM Equities, but also an all-time high on the S&P500

21.07.2019
More questions than certainties

More questions than certainties

2019 is an exceptional year for investors so far, with record performances

14.07.2019
More data, less certainty

More data, less certainty

Last week’s set of monthly US economic data were good enough to question a rate cut in July

07.07.2019
A strong first half of the year, many uncertainties ahead

A strong first half of the year, many uncertainties ahead

H1-2019 provided investors with very positive returns for every single asset-class

30.06.2019
Don't fight the Fed

Don't fight the Fed

The Fed didn't disappoint market expectations for imminent rate cuts

23.06.2019
The Fed dilemma

The Fed dilemma

Geopolitical risks are weighing on business sentiment, questioning growth prospects

16.06.2019
Is bad news, good news?

Is bad news, good news?

Last week's economic data confirmed downside risks to global growth

09.06.2019
Waiting for uncertainty to lift

Waiting for uncertainty to lift

Trade tensions unlikely to subside in the short term

19.05.2019
Take profits in May, but don't 'go away'

Take profits in May, but don't 'go away'

Last week has been all about the re-escalation of the trade conflict between US and China

12.05.2019
Trade war looms again

Trade war looms again

Last night on Twitter, Mr Trump announced an increase on tariffs on imports from China

05.05.2019
Goldilocks again?

Goldilocks again?

Global economy is healthy, driven by the US and China

28.04.2019
A quiet week

A quiet week

Markets didn't significantly move last week, with a drop in volatility

21.04.2019
Glimmers of hope in the global economy

Glimmers of hope in the global economy

Positive economic news over the week, supporting the case for improving global growth

14.04.2019
Easy money, uneasy investors

Easy money, uneasy investors

IMF Managing Director calls bottom of global economy either now or soon

08.04.2019
Business as usual

Business as usual

Brexit uncertainty highest as April 12 deadline looms larger

31.03.2019

Volatile again

The US Fed explicitly guided for no more rate hike in 2019, triggering a rally

25.03.2019
New highs

New highs

All asset classes were higher last week, as economic data pointed to some stabilization

18.03.2019
Growth concerns

Growth concerns

ECB and China were cautious on macro outlook, job creations in the US were soft in February

11.03.2019
Eventful week, flat markets

Eventful week, flat markets

Fed chairman testified, US/North-Korea held summit, US GDP was released…

4.03.2019
Not-too-distant future

Not-too-distant future

Another positive week across asset classes and geographies, lifting indices closer to our year-end fair values

26.02.2019
Politics and Policies

Politics and Policies

Markets have welcomed the probable extension of US-China talks

19.02.2019
A Perfect January

A Perfect January

The 2019 rally was extended last week by a dovish Federal Reserve in particular

04.02.2019
So Far, So Good

So Far, So Good

Another positive week across major asset classes, with a patient Fed and US shutdown ending

28.01.2019
The Good Side of Volatility

The Good Side of Volatility

2019 shows a very good start for risky assets, despite many issues still unresolved

21.01.2019
A better start

A better start

2019 starts well after the capitulation of December 2018

14.01.2019
Happy New Year

Happy New Year

After a brilliant 2017, 2018 was a year of no returns, and of considerable volatility

07.01.2019
Another drop of red ink

Another drop of red ink

Another negative week across the board, with a stronger US Dollar and weaker oil

17.12.2018
Volatility rules

Volatility rules

After fantastic returns in 2017 everywhere, 2018 is a sea of red

10.12.2018
A week of no relief

A week of no relief

Another negative week across the board, with oil prices falling 10%

26.11.2018
Politics and Policies

Politics and Policies

Another negative week for DM risky assets across the board, however better for EM equities

19.11.2018
Elections week

Elections week

US Congress is divided with Democrats winning the House, Republicans retaining the Senate

12.11.2018
October Angst

October Angst

October leaves its mark as a high-volatility month

05.11.2018
Sharp correction in equities

Sharp correction in equities

Equity markets sharply corrected last week, dominated by the fear that earnings might be peaking

29.10.2018
Uninspired markets

Uninspired markets

Most assets were slightly negative last week

22.10.2018
Volatility spikes – patience is paramount

Volatility spikes – patience is paramount

Risky assets sold-off aggressively last week

15.10.2018
Good news is bad news

Good news is bad news

A negative week across equities and bonds

07.10.2018
Entering a Perilous Q4 with Confidence

Entering a Perilous Q4 with Confidence

A slightly negative week, concluding an overall positive quarter

01.10.2018
Happy Times!

Happy Times!

Firm announcements on US China trade tariffs calm investors

24.09.2018
Time to add to Emerging Market Equities

Time to add to Emerging Market Equities

We are increasing our allocation to Emerging Market Equities

17.09.2018
10 years later

10 years later

A decade after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers

10.09.2018

Daily CIO Updates

17 December 2020

Markets are off to a muted start in the Asian morning session, following lack of additional easing by Jay Powell at the policy meeting which concluded yesterday.

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16 December 2020

Asian equities are climbing this morning after US stocks gained more than 1% yesterday on progress related to pandemic relief measures, while European markets were little changed.

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15 December 2020

Most Asian stocks are slipping this morning following Monday’s mixed session on Wall Street where markets reversed an early surge.

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14 December 2020

US futures are off to a good start this morning alongside rising Asian markets while the dollar is weakening.

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13 December 2020

Global equities pulled back for the week amidst a lack of positive catalysts and against what has now become a pretty frothy backdrop.

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10 December 2020

The recent market rally took a break Wednesday, affected by inconclusive political negotiations, an unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories, and a wind of fear on the technology sector.

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09 December 2020

Markets were mixed during most of Tuesday’s session before moving higher at the end of the US trading hours, as hopes for a stimulus deal back to support sentiment.

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08 December 2020

The start of the international week on financial markets was mixed.

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07 December 2020

After the best month of November since 1988, and positive returns across all assetclasses last week, the law of gravity would suggest a pause in the coming weeks.

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06 December 2020

The month of November started with a market-friendly US election outcome and ended with announcements about the imminent start of the Covid vaccination.

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November 2020

 

October 2020

 

September 2020

 

August 2020

 

July 2020

 

June 2020

 

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April 2020

 

March 2020

 

February 2020

 

January 2020

 

November 2019

 

October 2019

 

August 2019

 

July 2019

 

May 2019

 

April 2019

 

March 2019

 

February 2019

 

January 2019

 

December 2018

 
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